Regardless of the politics, it does not help anyone to deny reality, to say that a virus will never get here, and to spout repeated falsehoods about the situation. How many times do I have to hear Trump deny making any mistakes when first alerted to the virus, and then say that nothing like this has ever happened before, totally ignoring the Plague in Europe and the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic that caused roughly 675,000 deaths in the US? (And 50 million worldwide.)
Anyone can make mistakes. When a major problem occurs, mistakes will be made. But not everyone refuses to acknowledge having made any mistakes, no matter how trivial. Not everyone goes on a national TV broadcast and flatly denies responsibility for actions that are documented as belonging to them. Not everyone blames media and everyone but themselves for anything that goes wrong.
Without being more pointed, that's enough to lay out my total lack of respect for, and faith in, the current occupant.
Thank heavens for the experts and scientists who the administration has been forced to put on stage to speak to the American public. They do indeed know what they're doing, even if their statements are directly contradicted by the administration. The only people I believe are the scientists and experts who are doing the actual work. I automatically dismiss anything said by members of the administration, who adhere to the formula of spending 80% of their comments trying to quote the party line, and 20% kissing Trump's butt.
But here's the sense I make out of it:
- It's a virus. it's not going away, contrary to repeated assertions by Trump. We will be living with it for the foreseeable future, so our goal is to mitigate and manage it, not eradicate it, which has no historical precedent. (Even smallpox has not been eradicated, there was a small outbreak last year in a third world country.)
- If we develop a vaccine, that will not happen before early 2021. It can't happen earlier. However, we may find that other drugs already on the market have positive effects on this virus, and if so, we may get help from them this summer or fall.
- Long term, our goal must be to manage this virus like we manage the flu virus. There will probably be some buildup of immunity, but if it mutates (unknown at this time) there will be repeated seasons where we deal with it. A vaccine will be a critical part of managing it as an ongoing part of life.
That's the scientific part the way it lays out to me after 39 years of working with scientists doing genetic research.
As far as the lockdown, I expect that not to exceed 60 days (but more likely the end of April), because otherwise the economy will crater and thousands of businesses will fail. There will be a point where we have to open the doors and let people move around in some fashion just to preserve our economy.