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COVID-19


Zed Head

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On 7/7/2020 at 8:08 PM, Zed Head said:

Nice chart tools on this site.

I put CA and NY next to each other and got a pretty interesting graphic.  I am betting this is how things end up in CA.  For CA, Texas and Florida, the ramp up the curve has started and is pretty unstoppable due to the sheer number of infected people.  It will play out like NY and NJ unfortunately. 

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45 minutes ago, motorman7 said:

Nice chart tools on this site.

Do you now of any that have per capita data?  (Edit - actually that document I linked to above has per capita data from the CDC.  They use it to define the "red zones".  But, apparently, the data will not be available to the public anymore.)  It's surprising, or not surprising considering how everything is sensationalized, that there isn't more focus on this way of viewing things.  100 cases per day in New Mexico is not the same as 100 cases per day in Florida.  Per capita data gives a person an idea of the odds of catching the virus.  Even better would be per capita by locale instead of state.  County or city.  All I really get from the graphs is that things are going the the right way or the wrong way, but no real idea of how bad things are.

Washington state has an interesting site that breaks things down by county.  If you know the area you can at least guess.  But still, you have to know where the bigger cities are.  But you can at least see where to hide within the state.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard

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Edited by Zed Head
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The CDC has the numbers.  The graphics aren't bad.  It's hard to keep up with what's really happening.  I had looked over the CDC site before and id not find this but it's there now.  Worth browsing, pick your state from the menu at the top.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/county-map.html

Here's from the WA state page.  Avoid Yakima county.

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I have relatives in Yakima county. What others may not see in the charts above is that there are two factors impacting the increase in Washington state cases. The first is population density, and the second is conservative political tendencies.  Yakima county is a very "right" county and so are many of the others with increased CO-19 rates.

The apt student will reach his or her own conclusions about this. 

And BTW, Go COUGS!

Edited by Pilgrim
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I'm just in "reduce the probability" mode now.  Doesn't really matter how or why it's happening, just how do I avoid getting it.  Flying is out, the airlines don't care.  Certain cities are out, they are festering spreader zones.  Even locally, I avoid certain areas because there is no room to get around people if you happen to hit the same spot at the same time.  I shop at the off the main drag supernarkets, they see less volume so better odds.

Just like avoiding smoky bars, or avoiding the roads on the weekends after midnight.  That's really the point of all of the recommendations, improving the odds.  The science guys tend to assume that the average person doesn't understand probability, so they "dumb down" their recommendations.  Ivory towers and all of that.  I think that they forget about Las Vegas and Reno.  They just need to frame the message in the right terms. 

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