Recommended Posts


    Korea seems to have the most accurate stats.  ~ 0.7% death rate is not as bad as feared.  Not sure why Italy and Iran are higher.  Different strain of virus or more people with underlying ailments.

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    The more tests that you do, the more people you catch that aren't showing symptoms.  In America and other countries the lack of testing makes the death rate look higher, because only people closer to dying are tested when they show up at the hospital.  Because they're not catching as many people with the virus.  The irony of trying to make the numbers loo good by testing as few people as possible is that it makes the death rate look higher.

    I got a 2% death rate using this data.

    https://www.covidus.com/coronavirus-usa/

    • Like 1

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    I have been watching the John Hopkins site for 3-4 weeks now

    12 minutes ago, 240260280 said:

    Korea seems to have the most accurate stats.  ~ 0.7% death rate is not as bad as feared.  Not sure why Italy and Iran are higher.  Different strain of virus or more people with underlying ailments.

    S Korea pushed very hard from the very beginning to mitigate transmission and they have a very high percentage of hospital beds versus population. Also the death rates spike when the medical system gets overwhelmed like in Italy and Iran. That's when it gets ugly. That is the reason for all the current closings, to slow transmission to a manageable level.

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Given all the bans of public gatherings and events plus the shutdown of some business's, it looks like some of us might get some more quality time with our Z's.

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    California just ordered all bars and winery operations to close.

    Locally, there are 14 identified cases in the county with 12 of them in my community.  Four of the local 12 are in the hospital and the other eight are quarantined at home.  The recommendation is for everyone over 65 to shelter in place.

    My son was to start his new job with Google tomorrow.  Last week he was told to come in tomorrow (Monday), sign in, pick up a company computer, and go home for two weeks prepared to work remotely.  This morning, he got an email telling him to phone in tomorrow and they would get him signed in and on the payroll - no need to come in for a computer.  He will basically be on paid vacation for at least two weeks, maybe more, until they decide to return employees to the office.

    Dennis

     

     

    • Like 1

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Unfortunately in all this, I am an engineer and am trained to just look at stats and data.  Having looked at the data, the whole Coronavirus scare makes no sense to me.  

    To date (March 15) for all of 2020 (Approximately 75 days) there are 60 Coronavirus deaths in the US.

    Meanwhile in the US for all of 2020 there have been roughly:

    8,200 Flu related deaths.

    9,800 suicides

    7,500 Automobile accident  deaths

    14,300 Opioid related deaths.

    Also, Coronavirus is no more deadly than the flu for people under 65 based on data from China an South Korea.

    Cases are not 'spiking', they are just getting more test kits and are now able to differentiate between flu and coronaviris.  Coronavirus has been spreading unchecked for the last 3 months in the US without significant damage.  Most people have passed it off as the flu before the hype reached full swing.  The number in the US infected ranges anywhere from 50K to 500K according to a John Hopkins professor.  I would agree with that number to the high side on this.

    I think Boris Johnson of the UK is the only individual that gives me hope for sanity in this crazy world.

    Personally, my bet is that the coronavirus will mutate into the shadovirus.  This is the virus that will make us all afraid of our own shadows.  Cure will be to avoid direct sunshine and all lights inside your home.

    Just my thoughts. OK, back into isolation

     

     

    Edited by motorman7
    • Like 1

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    The fact that it's new and undefined is the key.  If you read around about past epidemics you'll find some that faded away and some that were very bad.  But they can't be predicted.  Ebola is the last big one, and, apparently, because we were prepared, it never took hold in the rest of the world.  I think that the bigger fear is that eventually one will come along that really is very deadly.  This one is a practice run, and we're failing in controlling it.  It should be easy, supposedly we're the most sophisticated most powerful nation in the world..

    And you're looking at after-the-fact numbers.  Besides that, what do you tell the families of the 42 people that died in Washington?  After scientists in Washington had identified the disease but the CDC told them to stop testing.  The consistent failures make you wonder what else could go wrong.  I think that's what much of the fuss is about.

    And if you have relatives over 65 then you worry about the overall healthcare system failing them and letting them get ill.  If you just don't care about people over 65 then I guess you'll be okay with whatever happens.  Take off your engineer hat and see what comes in to your head.

    Edit - actually just realized that you used absolute numbers instead of percentages.  C'mon, you're an engineer!  You know better.  Do the math.

    Edited by Zed Head

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    6 hours ago, 240260280 said:

    Korea seems to have the most accurate stats.  ~ 0.7% death rate is not as bad as feared.  Not sure why Italy and Iran are higher.  Different strain of virus or more people with underlying ailments.

    I wonder the implications of US sanctions on Iran, and how it's making medical treatment within Iran more difficult. I see that there is a "humanitarian" section which allows some medical devices into Iran. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/iran_humanitarian_20191025.pdf

     

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    One must look at the details. Analysis is showing that using steroids, acetaminophen, acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) acid and ibuprofen during the fever stage have detrimental effect on recovery. It is better to let your body fight the infection naturally. Some also recommend  not taking acetaminophen,(Tylenol, paracetamol).

    This illness has an incredible infection rate that occurs in the early stages of the disease. This  makes it differ from MERS, SARS, Ebola, Flu, etc.  Usually with these, the carrier has symptoms so you know to stay away.  This virus is not like that. It goes though the population like wild fire as spreaders show no symptoms.  It also does not kill like MERS or EBOLA so more spreaders are alive longer to continue spreading. 

    This disease has only been with us for ~ 2 months (neglecting the hiding and lies 2 month period from mainland China that gave us this plague) so we still know very little about it.  Recent evidence from Japan shows you can be cured then get reinfected.  From leaked data, it seems like China has given up fighting the disease and has closed many hospitals.... I wonder if they now realize fighting it is impossible so everyone must face it individually and head on.... people are still welded in their apartments in Wuhan and factories have not ramped up.

     

     

    Edited by 240260280
    • Like 1

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    2 hours ago, 240260280 said:

    One must look at the details. Analysis is showing that using steroids, acetaminophen, and ibuprofen during the fever stage have detrimental effect on recovery. It is better to let your body fight the infection naturally.

    This illness has an incredible infection rate that occurs in the early stages of the disease. This  makes it differ from MERS, SARS, Ebola, Flu, etc.  Usually with these, the carrier has symptoms so you know to stay away.  This virus is not like that. It goes though the population like wild fire as spreaders show no symptoms.  It also does not kill like MERS or EBOLA so more spreaders are alive longer to continue spreading. 

    This disease has only been with us for ~ 2 months (neglecting the hiding and lies 2 month period from mainland China that gave us this plague) so we still know very little about it.  Recent evidence from Japan shows you can be cured then get reinfected.  From leaked data, it seems like China has given up fighting the disease and has closed many hospitals.... I wonder if they now realize fighting it is impossible so everyone must face it individually and head on.... people are still welded in their apartments in Wuhan and factories have not ramped up.

     

     

    On the other hand, I just came across this article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection

    It specifically says that acetaminophen is okay.

    Accurate information is difficult to come by in the fog of war.

    • Like 1

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Unfortunately we are all paying the price of fake news and disinformation in society right now . Politics have skewed science . 
    Also, to many variables to compare countries . China air quality , smoking population , density of population all contributors to this .

    What scares me is when I hear from people they don’t even watch the news anymore , so they are not informed and make decisions based on that premise . Ignorance will play a bit part too. 
     

    USA will probably benefit from our supply network and variance of populated areas . Listen to the scientists , not the politicians is my 2 cents

    • Like 1

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    10 hours ago, Zed Head said:

    Edit - actually just realized that you used absolute numbers instead of percentages.  C'mon, you're an engineer!  You know better.  Do the math.

    Personally, I think the media uses percentages to confuse the masses.  My use of absolute numbers was very purposeful and intentional and a true reflection of reality.

     

    If two people have died of coronavirus and and one more dies what will sell more newspapers or make a better headline: 1) Coranavirus deaths in the US increase by 50% in one day! or 2) One more individual has succumbed to the coronavirus?  

    The use of percentages should always put you on alert.  Also, when you see high percentages, typically your sample size is small.  When you read about companies growing by large percentages, the first thing that you should notice is that it is a small company.

     

    I don't mean to sound so heartless, and I am in the demographic that needs to be a bit more cautious, and I have been.  However, I live by the data....this is also why I don't gamble or play the lottery among other things. 

     

     

    Edited by motorman7
    • Like 1

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Things that made me go "OH $hit!!!!!"
     

    - full hazmat suits goggles and masks worn in China in Jan when this "first started".... when did you ever see these PPE for a new "flu"?  China knew this was bad $hit right from the start AND they have the excellent digitized patient records and facial recognition to follow the paths of the early victims (which currently go back into November).

    - China fumigating streets! What kind of flu virus needs to be cleaned outside?  Some serious $hit going down.

    - China steeling Ebola virus from a Canadian Level 4 lab and sending it to the Wuhan Lab just a year ago.... not an act of good will. What were they doing?

    - The masses of dead in China and Iran.

    - People catching it twice in such short time... this is not a flu!!!!

    - Uncertainty if mankind will ever gain immunity to this virus.

     

     

    image.png

     

     

    image.png

    Edited by 240260280
    • Like 1

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Time to start cutting newspaper pages into strips the width of a toilet paper roll.

    Sorry, just trying to lighten this discussion up a bit.

    Dennis

    • Like 2
    • Haha 2

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    6 minutes ago, psdenno said:

    Time to start cutting newspaper pages into strips the width of a toilet paper roll.

    Sorry, just trying to lighten this discussion up a bit.

    Dennis

    Well spring will be soon so lots of leaves too.

    • Like 1
    • Haha 2

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    28 minutes ago, motorman7 said:

    Personally, I think the media uses percentages to confuse the masses.  My use of absolute numbers was very purposeful and intentional and a true reflection of reality.

    This is a weird comment.  Percentages are one of the most effective ways to describe large numbers.  

    And odd that an "engineer" would ignore or not understand exponential growth, or even how any person wouldn't understand how disease spreads.  It starts small and grows.  It's not a constant like automobile deaths or addiction.  But, that's today's world.  Many "experts" sowing confusion.

    If society can get ahead of the growth fewer people will die.  If they sit back and say it's a hoax and it will pass, more people will die by the time it's over.  The math shows that.

     

     

    • Like 1

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-south-korea-compared-to-flu-2020-3

    motorman does have a point about the media though.  They tend to pick and choose their data to project a view.  In this article they use the US flu rate and the South Korea COVID-19 rate.  Why not use the South Korea flu rate?   Who knows.

    Big picture wise, it's hard to imagine that the whole world and every state in the US has been suckered in to drastic measures by the media's use of percentages.  Could be though.  The last three years are telling.

    Edited by Zed Head

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    The health department sent out an email this morning saying we may be forced to close the dining area. Take outs only from the big restaurant and our drive through business can still operate. So I'm about to get some socially distant Z time. Yay!

     

    • Sad 1

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Definitely caution is in order and I think the awareness of the virus spread will also help reduce flu deaths which will be an added benefit.

    Regarding exponential growth, I think the exponential growth is in test kits and testing, not new cases (although that is growing as well).  I am in complete agreement with the John Hopkins professor who stated the the number of cases in the US is actually in the 50K to 500K range, and I would lean to the high side.  The coronavirus has gone pretty much unchecked in the US for the last 3 months and with such a connected society, it is hard for me to believe the that the number is just in the low thousands.  My personal opinion is that a large number of people have had it and moved on, thinking they had the flu.  I would also contend that a number of the 8200 flu deaths this year were actually coronavirus deaths, just not tested. The media is just catching up really.  Yes, it is a novel virus and has sadly killed a significant number of people, I do however question our response.

    It will be interesting the follow the UK's data versus the US data.  Personally, I think they are using the best approach for the long term, but time will tell.  

     

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    You like the UK's herd-thinning approach? 

    Maybe COVID-19 is actually a government (world government) plan to reduce the burden on society of an aging population.

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now