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34 minutes ago, Zed Head said:

Technology is starting to catch up with the reality of the new world we'll have for a while.  Soon we'll have warning apps for our phones to tell us when we're getting close to a hotspots.  Run!  Of course the app will need access to photos, contacts, and all data on your phone.

https://uasystem.edu/covid-19-dashboard?0

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/university-of-alabama-coronavirus-140343391.html

 

Would be interesting to know how many of those were: asymptomatic, hospitalized or ICU.   The fact that they don't mention any hospitalization makes me think it is not very many. 

In San Diego County we get daily infections, hospitalizations, ICU status and deaths. San Diego had a 0 death day yesterday.

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I think a big concern will be that people downplay the severity of the college outbreaks because the younger population doesn't get as sick, and not as many die.  Overlooking, either purposefully or just ignorantly, that it's the transfer to at-risk people that is the real issue.  These college kids are virus vectors, disease carriers, agents of the grim reaper.  They're just young kids though, they don't really know.

It's the older educated people that have to keep their minds open to what is really going on.  It also seems like the lower testing numbers are skewing the view of the severity, showing a lower case count.  But deaths are up by a lot.  We've been at 1,000 dead per day average for quite a while.  Real people, real families, real death.  And it's still summer when the virus is supposed to be muted.

image.png

Edited by Zed Head
left out a ful

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I spent a little time on the worldometer site ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries )  yesterday looking at the data.  There is a ton of information there.  From the the data, here are a few of my observations.

image.png

This is the world data.  Here are my thoughts on the world data.

1)  It looks like we peaked around August 8, give or take a few days, for the daily new cases.  The daily death rate has not risen in unison but is very roughly around 5k per day and somewhat flat by comparison. In that same April to August time frame, daily new case rate tripled.  I think the reason for this is because of: increased testing availability (thus more tests), improvements in treating the disease (remidisiver?), and the most virulent forms of the virus dying out-They kill their hosts. 

2) The big ramp starting in May is when Brazil, India and Mexico joined in on the party (Major population centers). Brazil, Mexico and US are beyond their peaks and ramping down.  India looks like they have not peaked yet and they have a heck of a lot of people. 

3) China is a non-reporter and has no bearing on these charts.  However, in reality, they are a pretty scary unknown since they have the worlds largest population.  Also, I think Mexico and India may be underreporting due to some of the more impoverished areas not reporting or providing accurate data (Just guessing on that one)

4) Europe is pretty much past this all with very few deaths coming from England, Spain. France and Italy.  My guess would be the few that they have are the elderly.

5) Currently, the overall trend looks to be going down for both daily new cases and daily deaths which is somewhat encouraging.  Both charts should continue to show a long slow downward ramp.  There may be a few bumps in the downward trend, but I doubt that any of them exceeds the current peaks.

 

 

 

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The normalization of this state of affairs in the United States of America is the other major effect.  You just compared the USA to Brazil, India, China and Mexico.  We used to think of three of those as undeveloped, basically poor countries, and the other as a developed Communist nation with a population of poor people.  Look at where we stand now.

And look at the image I pasted in my post above.  About the same number of deaths shown as India.  But India has twice the cases.  For today our death rate is double India's.  Over the course it's 1.84% versus  3.06%.  Isn't that incredible?  That's what happens when they play the testing games.  The death rate goes up, on paper.

The USA used to be the place to go to avoid what's happening in those other countries.  Now we're worse than they are.  

https://www.kayak.com/travel-restrictions

image.png

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4 hours ago, Zed Head said:

And look at the image I pasted in my post above.  About the same number of deaths shown as India.  But India has twice the cases.  For today our death rate is double India's.  Over the course it's 1.84% versus  3.06%.  Isn't that incredible?  That's what happens when they play the testing games.  The death rate goes up, on paper.

The USA used to be the place to go to avoid what's happening in those other countries.  Now we're worse than they are.  

The death rate is more a factor of timing really.  At the initial virus outbreak, the virus was quite deadly as it ravaged Europe and the North East US.  The death rate for all those countries on the leading edge was quite high.  That is what the charts I posted earlier show, high death rate per infection in April, and a death rate at nearly one-third of that by August.  I would expect that trend to continue as the virus weakens over time.  This can also be seen in the US data.  Those states in orange below were part of the initial infection and have a much higher death rate than those in the yellow that are part of the current US peak.  A virus weakens over time.  The strong ones kill their hosts and die out themselves.  The weak ones survive and their hosts live on to infect others.  That is why in virtually all of the European daily death charts and New York and New Jersey you have the steep rise initially and then the slow drop as the virus weakens as it works its way through the population with the survival rate increasing.  

image.png

This article talks about that process a bit.  While biology is really not my forte, the numbers from the charts above are really quite telling

https://sciencewithdrdoug.wordpress.com/2020/07/27/enzymes-in-humans-are-mutating-the-novel-coronavirus-in-an-accelerated-fashion-to-make-it-less-harmful/

 

 

As a side note, I think you're being a little hard on the college kids as being 'agents of the grim reaper'.  Technically, anytime we get behind the wheel of our cars, we could be considered 'agents of the grim reaper'.  37,000 Automobile deaths and millions injured or handicapped. 

Edited by motorman7

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22 minutes ago, motorman7 said:

The death rate is more a factor of timing really. 

I just get to the heart of things rather than talk around them like they aren't happening.  It is what it is.

That's why I included the overall comparison.  1.8 versus 3.1.  No significant timing there.  I anticipated your argument...

You're talking around what's obvious.  

Doesn't really matter much.  We all live in our own little thought bubbles.  Cognitive bias is a bitch.

Edited by Zed Head

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Marketwatch seems like they'd be middle of the road.  Biased toward making money, a person would assume.  How can less testing be better for anyone or anything?

Almost like there's a plan to spread the virus.  Barely comprehensible, but the facts seem to fit.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-update-health-experts-express-alarm-at-cdc-change-in-testing-guidelines-that-exclude-asymptomatic-patients-2020-08-26

The Marketwatch link seems to be pay-per-view now.  Here's Google's collection.

https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqOQgKIjNDQklTSURvSmMzUnZjbmt0TXpZd1NoTUtFUWlOdkkzT2tJQU1FYWpfaWZpWWR5WkRLQUFQAQ?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

Edited by Zed Head

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1 hour ago, Zed Head said:

Marketwatch seems like they'd be middle of the road.  Biased toward making money, a person would assume.  How can less testing be better for anyone or anything?

 

 I can think of one person!

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On 8/25/2020 at 3:32 PM, Zed Head said:

Technology is starting to catch up with the reality of the new world we'll have for a while.

Common sense is beginning to squeeze in thankfully. 

Fear the truth isn't working in Alabama, that's bad because "we're" scared of you Yankees. LOL

I need to apologize for my bad choice of a word. I love all you guys no matter where you live. The man that lives in the WH is from Queens and he's a scaremonger. He's not scaring anybody I know. I'm sorry, but I'm pissed.

 

Edited by siteunseen
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For anyone getting lulled in to believing that the situation in the USA is normal.

These curves should be very similar, at least.  You can't fake deaths.  "Fake deaths" isn't a thing, although it might be tried, no surprise.

Over three times as many people are dying of COVID-19 in the USA as in our"comparables".  Modern developed countries.  We used to be one.

image.png

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I watch this pretty closely as I do anesthesia (1 day a week now as I am retired). I have pronounced roughly 30 deaths and intubated twice that. We are quickly approaching 200K deaths in the US and that is a shame as it was not necessary. I think we will still have another peak as there is no discipline in this country. People refuse to do the safe thing because it violates their rights. Hmmm...

My next door neighbor died approximately a month ago now. His name was Louie and he was a car guy. (Audi S8 in perfect condition) He was always up for helping me wrench. He called 911 at 8am and when the FD and Ambulance arrived he staggered out the door and fell to the ground unable to breath. He died where he landed. The Washoe County Department of Health had to double body bag him so the funeral home could take him. He was 39. He had just bought that 4Runner for his wife. 

This is real. It's changing everything. Be safe out there...

IMG_1225 (1).JPG

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On 8/28/2020 at 11:37 PM, Zed Head said:

Over three times as many people are dying of COVID-19 in the USA as in our"comparables". 

If I'm reading that graph correctly, that would be over six times as many, based on the August numbers.   And I don't think the jump in U.S. numbers during July should be misconstrued as the 'second wave'.  I think the real second wave is waiting to emerge in October -- and it may not be pretty.  Conedodger's story and the accompanying picture are first person and compelling.

Edited by Namerow
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5 hours ago, conedodger said:

People refuse to do the safe thing because it violates their rights. Hmmm...

I think "violates their rights" is the excuse for why they refuse, the real reason I'll bet is that it would take some effort and is so inconvenient.

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I have a problem with this "violates your rights" protestation. What it really means is "I'm pissed at not getting my way, so I'll claim my rights are being violated."

All rights have limits under certain circumstances; these include such basics as life and liberty. Prison removes liberty and capital punishment cancels life. Slander laws limit freedom of speech, as does the famous example of legal action after yelling "fire" in a crowded theater. Firearms can't be carried in certain settings or circumstances. At least one state has recognized the Governor's right to enact and enforce a mask order. 

I do not intend to make this a political argument, but to note that any of our rights are to some degree circumstantial and can be temporarily changed. In my personal opinion a worldwide pandemic qualifies as such a circumstance.

Also, it is sometimes possible to insist on your rights to the point where it is roughly equivalent to committing suicide.

Edited by Pilgrim
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1 hour ago, Pilgrim said:

I have a problem with this "violates your rights" protestation. What it really means is "I'm pissed at not getting my way, so I'll claim my rights are being violated."

 

 

A feeling of entitlement and a lack of empathy. The two sides of the same narcissistic coin.

 

1 hour ago, Pilgrim said:

 

Also, it is sometimes possible to insist on your rights to the point where it is roughly equivalent to committing suicide.

 Perhaps the origin of the term "dead right".

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I think that some of the face covering refusal is just normal denial of something scary and uncontrollable.  Without leadership showing bravery and giving guidance it's easier for some people to deny a problem exists than to deal with it mentally and emotionally.  At this point the problem seems endless, no solution in sight, so people have no reason to delay what they see as inevitable.

And the lack of leadership is not just the bright shiny guy at the top.  The silence from Congress is probably fear-based also.  No one there is sacrificing anything for their constituents, just trying to hang on to what they have.  We'll probably see many members coming out from hiding if they make it through the next election cycle, pretending that they were working behind the scenes to solve the problems.

It really seems like the guys that control the country see the bulk of the population as "work-force", here to produce goods for them to benefit from.  Trying to starve them/us back out to go to work.  And 200,000 dead / 328,000,000 is only 0.06%.  A small cost to keep the money flowing.  1,000,000 / 328,000,000 is only 0.3%.  Peanuts.  And most of them old and not working anyway.  Dead wood.

That's how some of those guys see things.  Just numbers.

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It's not just the college kids.  It's the delay in symptoms, and the asymptomatic part that is the big problem.  If people would just die as soon as they get it, life would be so much more sensible.

That's what the scientists should be working on.  An injection that amplifies the effects.  Get the injection and you can go do what you want.  Because you'll die as soon as you get COVID-19.  You won't be able to spread it.  All damage contained to you.  They could call it the the Freedom Injection.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tens-thousands-motorcycle-enthusiasts-traveled-153930782.html

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I agree in general with your proposition.  I would replace one word: ""That's is what the scientists should be working on".  This nothing to do with scientists.  It has everything to do generational politics. 

  • If you're under 35, your premise is this:  'I have a career and and a life to pursue and I won't be held back by a virus that statistics tell me is no more dangerous to me than dying of influenza."
  • If you're older than 65, your premise is this: 'I worked hard to get where I am and now my life and my future is being jeopardized by a bunch of careless, selfish younger people who just don't care.'

 

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Then you're somewhere in between the two views, aren't you?  Only the under 35's and the over-65's enjoy the certainties of their views.

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I was offering a simple solution that all sides should accept.  Except maybe the death part.  I projected.  How about just instantaneous signs of infection.  Frothing at the mouth, collapse, cries of agony.  So that everyone knows there's an infected person present.  It will cut down on contact tracing needs dramatically.

The link I posted was about how it's not just the young people (college usually implies young).  These guys are all older.  Biker crowds.

image.png

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Crazy times man, crazy times.  I hope we all make it through and get back to at least some form of sustainable madness.

More and more of the people in the crowds at the events and parties are testing positive.  Russia doesn't need any help at all...

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Too serious.  Had a joke here.  Wait it out.

 

Edited by Zed Head
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