Zed Head

There is some controversy over the IHME COVID-19 infection and death model. If you've been watching the news, or even this thread, you'll see discussion about how many different models there are and how they can disagree by quite a bit. But the IHME model is used by the White House and is now being used by many other places. The latest controversy is in England, where it projects a very high death rate. The page does have a drop-down menu that will allow you to see the projections for any state and most countries in the world. So, it can at least you give you one model's look at your location. Here's my state's projection. Says that we are past the peak and cruising, with no demand for ICU beds. Which would explain why we sent 400 ventilators to New York, maybe. It doesn't really project ventilator shortage just shows demand. Kind of like cylinder pressure, the absolute numbers don't matter as much as the comparison, I think. Worth browsing around to see what your locale might expect. But, the model's output will change as more data is collected. So, if testing is poor the data will be poor. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/washington

More Crozier material. I've been following the story and came across this article, which is like many. But the quote at the end kind of stunned my brain. Tone-deaf, ignorant, disingenuous... I don't know. Overall though, the story illustrates some concerns about military readiness if the virus gets spread through the armed forces. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/07/house-probe-removal-navy-captain-over-coronavirus-alert-171710 Here's the WTF quote, Bold and italics are mine - "Esper has indicated he agreed with Modly's decision to remove Crozier. "It was based on his view that he had lost faith and confidence in the captain based on his actions. It was supported by Navy leadership," Esper said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union." "And I think it’s just another example of how we hold leaders accountable for their actions."

Gin and tonic! Can't believe that nobody has realized this! Back to the days of malaria. What is hydroxychloroquine? Hydroxychloroquine, also known by its brand name, Plaquenil, is a drug used to treat malaria. It is a less toxic version of chloroquine, another malaria drug, which itself is related to quinine, an ingredient in tonic water.

I hate to keep piling on. But I found an interview with Dr. Fauci where he goes in to detail about masks and aerosols. I also realized that Dr. Price's video message was focused on keeping a person's "circle" of family and friends safe, along with the concerned person. But he didn't really talk about keeping people outside the circle safe. By not being an unwitting spreader of the virus. The part about masks starts around 4:20. Hard to argue against Dr. Fauci. He's been around. Look at where he's giving the interview.

Here's some aerosol research, published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Half-life is the time it takes for half of the material to disappear or degrade. So, at 1.1 - 1.2 hours, there is still half as much aerosol material left floating and active. I wish it wasn't so. But it seems to be. The list of authors is at the bottom of the Letter. There is a bunch. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973 "The half-lives of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 were similar in aerosols, with median estimates of approximately 1.1 to 1.2 hours" "Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed). "

But who is he, and how do you know that he knows what he's talking about? I work with many highly educated people and they all think that they know more than the next guy. It's just one of those things about "smart" people. It's a comforting video but is it based on solid scientific evidence? The guy only has one publication, and he's the third author. The place in the author list tells the level of the contribution to the paper. Edit - wait. There must be an old version of the page I linked out there. There's a new one with more publications I added it. Still, his publications have nothing to do with infectious diseases. I don't know why he would think that he's more qualified than most to make his assertions. Hate to be a buzzkill, I really do, but I really do know a lot of people like this and I think I could easily go out to the interweb and find another guy, probably with better credentials, who says that aerosol transmission is real. I guess it doesn't matter much, impact-wise, because he's still saying that wearing a mask is a good idea. Just for different reasons. Sorry, seriously. I always check the sources though. He's probably looking for his own source of confidence himself. He even implied it at the beginning of his video. He's kind of talking to himself. And, to be blunt, he's really not qualified to be making a public service video. He just isn't. He just got through his residency, he's a new doctor. Anyway, it's generally good advice but it will lead to people who think that they might be sick not worrying about blowing aerosol all over. Because this guy says it's not a factor. If he's wrong, he could cause many more infections. He didn't cite a single source for his "belief" about aerosol. https://medicine.weill.cornell.edu/sites/default/files/pulm_recent_grads.pdf https://medicine.weill.cornell.edu/sites/default/files/pulm_fellows_2016-19.pdf

You could go with aftermarket. The Redline guys seems to know what they're doing. Use their vehicle finder tool. Looks like they have one. I'd trust them, their other products work well. https://www.redlineoil.com/find-products-for-my-vehicle

Hydroxychloroquine, a gift from heaven. Take a chance! What do you have to lose?

Here's a good article about mathematical models. They're all wrong, but still better than nothing. (Isn't it funny how clever phrase really aren't very clever. Was that statement clever...?) https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/modeling-coronavirus-be-it-uws-or-others-uncertainty-is-the-only-certainty

Look in the General Information chapter. It says Dexron. Might be in the Owners Manual also.

Good point, for COVID-19 (edit - I was referring to jonbill's post here). I was thinking more in terms of just accepting more overall death, outside of COVID-19, as the price for having your candidate in office. But, that's politics. Here's a good story, linked below, which gets in to how people can believe things that aren't true. It's about the media and how they can be manipulated also, just like the people watching. You can't tell who to believe. It has some history of the man at the top included. One thing that's not often mentioned is the fact the man at the top has several criminal indictments waiting for him if he doesn't get re-elected. He needs that second term so that the statue of limitations will run out. He is desperate to stay in office. And that might be the greatest irony of this COVID-19 problem. If he had jumped on this pandemic early, when he first heard about it, he would really be a hero now. He would look like a real leader, overlooking distractions and focusing on what really mattered, for the people. People would be willing to overlook all of his flaws, just due to his handling of COVID-19. He blew a huge chance to paper over all of his past. I would guess that some historian will see that as the biggest missed opportunity of his life. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/04/front-row-at-the-trump-show-jonathan-karl-book

Thanks. I've found a few but there's usually focused on a certain cause, like traffic, or suicide. Actually, world-wide, the US probably has a low death rate because we are, or were, a highly developed country. The direction that it's heading now though is the wrong way I think. Anyway, COVID-19 has only been happening in the US for about a month. There's a long way to go. All we can really do is watch and hope.

Hydroxychloroquine is a big part of this article. It also seems like a smoke-screen and coverup is being started. By the time this is over there probably won't be any way to prove, with evidence, what was right and what was wrong. The experts are about to be purged, and the usual suspects will be coming back. It will be unbelievable. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/07/fox-news-coronavirus-trump-media-allies-turn-against-fauci Rudy Guliani and Dr. Oz, over Dr. Fauci. Try to grasp that. "Reportedly, Trump’s own, increasingly bullish enthusiasm for the drug is informed by Giuliani. He in turn picked the notion that it was cure-all up from a celebrity doctor, Mehmet Oz, who, like Trump, is a regular guest on Fox & Friends."

That's why I mentioned per capita, and corrected my other post. That's the best measure, I think. The great irony here is that we've been told and still continue to be told, or sold, how much better America is than anywhere else in the world. But the numbers don't show it. America is a facade. We're been heading away from the dream at a pretty rapid rate in the last few years. If there was a death per capita chart that included all deaths, due to poor medical care, pollution, crime, border deaths, etc. the USA might be way up there, pre-virus. The virus is icing on the death cake. We are very far from the "best". It's an illusion. I'll see if I can find a death-tracking site. I'm sure there's one out there. Might as well know who we really are, instead of listening to people on the news channels. They're just selling more stuff. Whatever keeps people watching.

I think it shows that the computer number doesn't matter that much. Nissan probably switched over as inventory ran out. Your 1980 is probably an early build date 1980 so it got the last of the "1979" ECU's.

I mis-wrote earlier. Apparently, Spain and Italy are still #1 in deaths. We're only #1 in death rate. so, we'll take that #1 spot in total deaths in a few more days probably. Here's a good site that breaks things down by country. We're actually doing pretty well in per capita terms. But we could have done so much better. Wasteful deaths due to stalling and distracting. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This graphic shows the timeline. Look at how much time we had to prepare, that was wasted.

IHME is back to keeping their page updated. It's not changing much, which suggests that their model is fairly accurate. The real data is matching the projected curve. They've expanded their work in to Europe. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

420 shows as a 79 ECU. Many of the ECU changes seem to be more for emissions reasons, I think. It probably won't hurt to try it just to see if the ECU is your problem. The main inputs will be the same, there's really nothing to damage.

There's a Nissan ECU guide in the downloads section. It might have a clue.

I haven't seen any comments about other politicians being "on the ball". Only about the obvious incompetence and idiocy of the President and the suckups he has surrounded himself with. I can't believe that you even wrote this post. Trump was warned about this pandemic very early and did nothing, see the link below. He gets his thoughts from the internet and Alex Jones and Steve Bannon. His inaction has led to many more people dying than should have. His efforts to get people to take hydroxychloroquine are an attempt to be able to say that he participated in a cure. If everyone is taking it who can say what made the survivors better? He is a 100% con-man and he always has been. The thread is about COVID-19. Trump is the main reason that United States of America has the worst COVID-19 epidemic in the world. We are #1 in sickness and death, and because of that Trump has to screw other countries that would normally get our help. His incompetence is affecting the whole world. Voting for Trump is voting for more death. The virus will still be around next year. He's not even a Republican, if you're one of those party followers. He was a Democrat when it worked for him then he switched parties when he saw a new opportunity. A new group to con. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/donald-trump-coronavirus-memos-warning-peter-navarro

Even the guys at the top have trouble really absorbing what's happening. How can a "health minister" not follow health-based guidance, that he supposedly played a part in producing? It's a tough reality. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/new-zealand-health-minister-demoted-after-beach-visit-broke-lockdown-rules

Pissing contests are kind of self-absorbed. Let's not do those. Your comment about "clouded judgement" is intentionally insulting. And I understood Pilgrim's post very clearly. You added some inference that wasn't there or maybe you just din't read it right. Let's not troll people in this thread. This is a serious issue.

A thought - velcro. I tied up a nice microfiber cleaning towel and it fits just right. But it's hard to get over my over-sized skull. Realized that velcro would be very nice.

The rear bolt probably just needs a socket on a long skinny extension. You might have to stack short extensions and/or use pliers on the extension instead of the ratchet handle.Then the housing might just pop off with a tap or two. Problems there are very common. Just have to get creative.