motorman7

Actually, I think their work is pretty poor and I don't think Europe will want them. Here are the problems that I see: 1) Their high projections need to be re-evaluated, they are way off. 2) Their daily death totals on April 2 were 600 people too low, by April 6 their total is over 800 people too high. (Based on John Hopkins numbers and what is being reported) 3) The huge jump in Daily deaths from April 3 to April 4 was to play catch-up and get the totals right. Unfortunately, they kept that large value which has caused them to far exceed the current death total (by 800) 4) At no time has the US daily death total reached over 1700 and they have that number twice. I show the highest total as 1486 which was yesterday. We may reach 1700 in 3 to 5 days. That being said, not impressed with the work. Also, the high and low curves should be much smoother due to the overlap of 50 states. The steep drops show that they have errors/inconsistencies in their model. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Also for what it's worth....from the charts: New York had it's worst day yesterday, not a good sign. Hopefully it is just a blip in the numbers. Michigan had a bad day and hopefully the rate starts slowing. They are starting to go vertical. The surprise was Georgia, big jump from the previous days, from an average of around 15 up to 75 yesterday. Maryland, Ohio and South Carolina are starting to ramp. Hopefully that does not continue. Wyoming is still our glimmer of hope with 0 deaths still.

I started graphing the John Hopkins numbers last week just to get a better idea of what is really happening in the US with the virus. There is a lot to be learned about the change in death totals in each state that give a good picture of what is going on. From the numbers: New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Louisiana are the big contributors to the daily death totals. New York seems to have leveled off, same with New Jersey and Louisiana. Michigan is going through a bad spell right now. The reason for the drop in deaths for April 5th was primarily due to New Jersey's lower numbers. I would say that most other states were relatively flat with California posting a drop. I think the high projections thought California, Texas and Illinois would be much worse. California is surprisingly low, fortunately. I owe Gavin an apology. Datawise, I try and record all data around 8AM Pacific time, however, New York updates around 10AM so I add them in later. Some states seem to update throughout the day...some just once a day. Wyoming still has 0 deaths. I think that says something about those wide open spaces. I also compared the John Hopkins totals with the Covid healthdata numbers. They are fairly close, but seems like Covid may have taken the weekend off as they are not as 'smooth'. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections I did not chart confirmed cases, because that number is limited by test availability. I am expecting tomorrows numbers to be higher because of New Jersey and Michigan late day updates, but New York will have the final say. I think the market rallied today because of the one day drop. Don't know if that will continue tomorrow. On the Excel charts, totals are in white, daily change in yellow, start date is April 2.

I think the trick will be to make it such that face masks are "cool', 'dope', 'Sic' or whatever the current 'hip' term is. Management at work has set up a contest to see who has the best looking face mask. The wives and seamstresses have been busy here. Went to Costco last Friday and saw the same thing you mentioned. Some people just don't care, and it's not just the young ones.

I think this is a great article. https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-found-solution-coronavirus-103003618.html Also this one https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/two-academic-brothers-have-a-plan-for-putting-the-country-back-to-work-in-just-weeks Time to start looking at solutions on how to exit this quarantine instead of running around and pointing fingers. The way we move on from this point is very key.

I use this mask when working on the wire wheel or when grinding and debris is flying. Super comfortable and quick to put on. I do, however, hate the ear plugs because they get tangled too easily- so i cut them off. I use big ear muffs instead.

Got the differential cleaned up and painted.

Cleaned and painted the drive shaft today......now I just need a car ?

Same here. This is always the longest part of the project. Engine, suspension and drivetrain are all ready to install once the body shows up.

Here are the latest pics from the body shop. We are pretty far along on the outside portion of the body, doglegs and inner panels have been fixed along with a number of other rust areas. Once the floor pans are finished up we should be in pretty good shape.

Will be interesting to see how they lift the shelter in place decrees. This article brings up some good points. https://www.dailywire.com/news/professors-push-back-on-pandemic-models-be-honest-about-what-happens-after-lockdowns-are-lifted Just an idea: given the state of our economy and unemployment, I think it would be smart to lift the shelter in place at the end of April starting with those individuals that are 30 and under. Would be nice to get movies and restaurants open (and other businesses), while still applying some form of social distancing. Maybe every other table empty at restaurants, two seats in between movie goers. I would still restrict large group gatherings. Then after two weeks, make the age restriction 35 and over...and so on every two weeks. (So I will be waiting a while here, for what it is worth). There needs to be some way of portioning out the herd-immunity without overwhelming the medical system, assuming a vaccine is not available in short order. Somewhat unrelated: The geek in me has now set up an excel chart to track and graph the deaths in each individual state to see where each state is at on the bell curve. Also, will be interesting to see if we get 'double bells' (two side by side bells) when lockdown ends. Unfortunately, this is going to get very ugly over the next two weeks. The US confirmed cases already tell that story.

Yes, it was a glitch, that's why I took the screen shot. Just surprised me to see their data missing.

Looks like the US just found a cure. Here is the latest John Hopkins update. Note time stamp in lower left corner. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

This thought keeps running through my mind...If we shelter in place real well, does that mean we get to shelter in place longer? Since we are trying to flatten the curve, the better we shelter, the flatter the curve. I don't think our country will have that problem, but it does give you something to think about. From the numbers, it looks like California has done a pretty good job so far based on the low numbers relative to population size. I do, however, think this is the calm before the storm for CA. We are just now starting to ramp up and will probably start seeing New York sized numbers by the beginning of next week.

Cleaned and painted the CV shafts this weekend. I painted them with 'aluminum' spray paint which I think may be a bit too shiny. May re-do this in flat aluminum.

Cleaned and painted the front grill. Also, got a new fuel pump and installed that. Looks much nicer and closer to the original than the standard auto part fuel pump. I had an old original style pump that I removed the screws and fittings from and sent out with the last batch of plating parts. I will probably swap out the clear zinc fasteners and fitting for the yellow zinc parts once they come back from the plating shop just to get a bit closer to the original look.

It would be nice if they would at least take a 'guesstimate' of Total Covid-19 Cases. I would think they could at least have a chart with upper and lower limit estimates. This chart is a bit misleading. It is real exact data, just not the true complete picture.

I took the average of 75% and 86% to come up with roughly 80% Asymptomatic. 80% is 4 out of 5, that is 4 out of every 5 are Asymptomatic. Thus only 1 in 5 are Symptomatic. To get the Total number of COVID-19 infected, I multiplied the number of Asymptomatic (1 in 5) by 5 to get the Total Covid-19 infected. That is 5X Note: this number does not include those that are just mildly sick from COVID-19 and don't get tested or thought perhaps they had the flu. Thus the "easily 5X".

It shows the rate of Test Kit Production which is very important. However, it has no relevance to Mortality rate. As for news articles: https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/86-of-people-with-coronavirus-are-walking-around-undetected-study-says/ “Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says. Six of every seven cases – 86% — were not reported in China before travel restrictions were implemented, driving the spread of the virus, according to a study Monday in the journal Science. https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1165 In an open letter to the authorities in the Tuscany region,1 Romagnani wrote that the great majority of people infected with covid-19—50-75%—were asymptomatic, but represented “a formidable source” of contagion. “The percentage of people infected, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases, particularly, but not only, among young people. Isolation of asymptomatics is essential for controlling the spread of the virus and the seriousness of the epidemic,” he said ___________ For what it is worth, I am an engineer and would consider myself an expert when it comes to data and statistics. I have made my living from it for the last 35 years. An expert in that I have made presentations to rooms of NASA scientists and engineers just to name a few, so I am extremely comfortable with data and charts.

As I said before, The chart above is a chart of Test Kit Production and has little relevance to the actual number of cases of COVID-19,which is easily 5X higher than this chart shows. Not sure why you keep showing this chart. It will be irrelevant until the number of kits equals those that show symptoms and are tested. Then you can multiply by 5 and get a rough idea of actual cases. ASYMPTOMATIC is the big issue here. I have said this before, the item that makes this virus unique is that most people are ASYPMTOMATIC. Italy said 75% of people are Asymptomatic, China says 86%. This means roughly 4 out of 5 people will exhibit no symptoms at all, NONE! Those with NO symptoms will most likely not go to get checked. In the US, they won’t even look at you unless you have some kind of symptom. Italy said their biggest problem was Asymptomatic spreaders. They don’t even know they are carriers, and thus exert less or no caution. Germany tested those that were in contact with Symptomatic spreaders, so their number includes Asymptomatic people which is why their death rate number is so low.

Cleaning and prepping small parts here. Also sending out final batch of parts to the plating shop. I am surprised that Motorsports does not yellow zinc plate their engine parts (two shown below) but it works out fine as I am sending parts to the pate shop anyway. Disassembled the bumpers to prep for new chrome plating. Looks like the bumperette rubber is in descent shape and can be re-used. That is good news as those peices are pretty hard to find. The trim rubber is cracked and oxidized so we will replace those.

Personally, I think the April 12 date is a gutsy call and the right way to go. People need a definitive date. Closing a state ‘indefinitely’ leaves no hope, no goal, and will result in people violating that order at will. I can tolerate just about anything for two weeks. I cannot tolerate ‘indefinitely’ (Mr. Newsome). The thing that still fascinates me is the how we are all avoiding the Big Monstrous Elephant in the room. During the 2017-2018 flu season, there were over 60,000 flu deaths in the US alone, and this is AFTER we have ‘developed a societal immunitly’ and have a vaccine. That translates to over 165 flu deaths a day, for every day of the year. In that the flu has a ‘season’, you are looking at 300 to 400 deaths per day from the flu during that season. Those are pretty big numbers that we are all pretty OK with. Companies are not shutting down, sick people are still going to work (unfortunately), life goes on. It’s called the ‘lullaby effect’. We have heard it so many times, had the shots, heard all the warnings year after year, so we are OK with it. Check out the numbers, they are large: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html I will be curious to see if the coronavirus, which does not have a vaccine, causes more deaths than the flu that we are currently very comfortable with. The bottom line is that you will come in contact with it at some time in your life. We are just too connected as a society. Fortunately, we have given ourselves a little time to prepare for what is soon to come. I am hoping we are ready and those that need attention will get it. Hopefully we have learned the importance of washing our hands, keeping safe distance, and staying home from work when sick among other things, from this situation. That is about as political as I will get here. Time to start thinking about the cars.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html Another very good article. It's good when people use data to analyze a problem instead of their raw emotion.

Best article I have read on this whole situation. Well done!

Coil spring RH and LH should probably be FWD and AFT

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/ This article shows lower mortality rates (still higher than flu) for those with 'symptomatic' infections. Interesting to know what the rate would be if you include the asymptomatic. Asymptomatic is a wild card. What causes that? Blood type? Overall health? Diet? Gene's? Time will tell, hoping for the best.