motorman7

Winning the Battle but losing the War? What concerns me most about the quarantine and lockdown is the impact that it has on our daily lives and ultimately those that will die as a result of it. While we may be sparing a good number of people from Covid-19 fatality, it will be coming at the cost of increased, suicides, domestic abuse, drug overdoses, etc. https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/suicide-overdose-deaths-coronavirus-will-have-indirect-fatalities https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/15/domestic-abuse-killings-more-than-double-amid-covid-19-lockdown I bring this up because personally, in my circle of friends sadly, there have been 2 suicides in the last two weeks, yet I am not aware of any covid infections. Unfortunately, this does not seem to be nationally important at this time, especially since the media is getting a lot of play out of the coronavirus pandemic. It made me think, if the number of suicides, overdoses, and domestic abuse killings were to outnumber the Covid deaths, would we still quarantine and lockdown? Sadly, I think the answer is yes because I think this whole issue is not about savings people’s lives anymore, but who is right and who is wrong. Unfortunately, I think we may be reaching a point where the cure is worse than the poison. Just my thoughts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States

I totally agree, my wife calls it car jewelry!

Got parts back from the plating shop. They always do very nice work.

Looks like trajectory is starting flatten here. Will be good when the red line starts moving down.

Colorado posts their Covid numbers as of 9:10 AM PST, April 20th. I am a bit suspect here.

Yes, good to see that taper off. Here is the latest Daily US Covid deaths chart. I added a 'polynomial' averaging indicator to show the trajectory. As time progresses, this should look more like a bell. I noticed New York re-adjusted their numbers again, more in line with the original earlier numbers. That 'smooths' the curve a little bit. As we head into the weekend, I am wondering if we will see the Sunday dip in the numbers again.

Yes, I guess that is another way of approaching it. There are a lot of options here and a lot of factors that come into play. My thought with 'releasing' the younger people out first was that as a city, local group, or state we could develop a herd immunity starting with the young people who are less susceptible to the virus. Then, slowly introduce us older folks. The asymptomatic part does not bother me, in fact I think it is great (other than the fact that you could carelessly spread it to those with compromised immunity). If we could all be exposed to the virus and have no symptoms, that would be an incredible thing. It is immunity essentially. However, such is not the case, and the whole issue is far more complex than that. Off hand, I think I would still feel comfortable releasing the under 40 crowd first. The over 40 crowd is much more challenging. Also, 40 is not necessarily my line in the sand for cut-off. I would need a lot more data to determine what would be the ideal age as a cut-off. I am just throwing that out as a reference. From a data standpoint, I would pick the age where the 'death by age group' starts to accelerate or increase in slope. Nice charts and great for a quick read. Also, good explanation as to how to read them. As they have noted, we want the data points to be to the right of the red curve and ideally to the right of the lower dotted blue line.

Totally agree with the tiered approach. You can not unleash everybody at once. That would be a disaster. Face masks and social distancing still need to take place even when people are out and about. Personally, I really think they need to look at the age factor in all of this. Unfortunately, I think it is being largely ignored. The majority of the deaths are in people 60 years old and older, often with underlying conditions. Yes there are a few outliers under 60 that do not survive , but the percentage is very low (The media will produce a documentary on every one of those under 60 individuals to try and persuade you otherwise). I would personally start with allowing much more freedom to those under 40. Then maybe several weeks later, we up it to 50 years of age, then 60, then 70, etc. I don't mind waiting as I am closer to 60. Open spaces need to be opened up. Beaches, parks, national forests, lakes, rivers, oceans, etc need to be opened up. Again, keep the distance, wear a mask, and start with those under 40. after a while, let us older folks in. Open up the restaurants, but keep every other table open. You wear a mask until you are seated. Open it up, but be smart about it. No mask, no service. Keep the special hours shopping. I like that as does my MIL. We really need to start getting smart about this, unfortunately there are very few managers in our government. We have hired a bunch of rich people who are still getting paychecks and getting advice from other rich people (right Bill) and have no clue what it is like to live paycheck to paycheck or without a paycheck. They are out of touch, unfortunately, we elected them thinking the money made them smart.

Here are the latest charts. Not sure what happened with New York numbers but it is a pretty monstrous jump with over 2K added deaths. From a chart standpoint, this will probably be our peak because of the anomaly. Other notable numbers are a rise in Connecticut, Massachusetts and......California. Will be interesting to see where California goes in the next few days. Yes, this is quite interesting. One King or 50 Kings. Personally, I prefer the 50 kings as it allows me to move to a more favorable kingdom if I so choose. Also, I think all states have their own challenges that need to be handled differently. You can't manage Wyoming like New York, etc. I think the thing I miss the most (other than the major loss of freedom) is the local restaurants being closed. And yet our fast food places are going full speed ahead. I guess that way we can get infected faster. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-two-mcdonalds-locations-kona-hawaii-linked-dozen-virus-cases/

Yes, totally agree on that. Personally, I hate going to the doctors or hospitals and pretty much would need to be on my death bed before going. Just the smell of hospitals and medical facilities makes me nauseous. My wife still tells the story how for her doctors visits for ultrasounds during her pregnancies (decades ago), that I would start getting sick in the hospital parking lot even before the we got into the building. The flip side to this, however, is it seems that a lot of the deaths seem to have pre-existing conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes, etc. So perhaps overall, the Covid deaths lead to a reduction in the heart disease, cancer and diabetes deaths. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/07/new-york-coronavirus-deaths-data-shows-most-had-underlying-illnesses/2960151001/ https://www.yahoo.com/news/obesity-biggest-factor-driving-york-155800441.html ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Really starting to have a hard time with this whole quarantine thing. I think it has gotten beyond stupid. I came across these two articles yesterday and the irony is tragic. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/us/florida-inmate-coronavirus-murder.html Do we count this murder as a Covid Death? https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/north-county-sheriffs-deputies-ticket-people-violating-stay-at-home-order/2305834/ Really, 6 months in jail? _________________________________________________________________________________________ I still think for California, we are a ticking time bomb. The lockdown is just delaying the inevitable. It will happen, just later than everyone else. Only difference is our economy will be much worse off because of the delay. And there is nothing I can do about it which is probably the most frustrating thing.

Started polishing the slotted mags. Will have to check the date on the tires here as they seem to be older and may need to be replaced. They are Uniroyal 'Tiger Paws'. I am old enough to remember the commercial for these tires. Getting a little impatient here waiting for the body.

Pretty bad day yesterday, April 14th, with a big spike in US Covid daily deaths. New Jersey had a large spike along with Michigan, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Texas and Ohio. Looks like we may not have hit the peak yet and are not flattening on deaths. Odd thing about the chart are the dips on April 5 and April 12, both a Sunday. Makes me think some states may be under-reporting or not reporting on the weekends. People are starting to get restless. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/15/lansing-capitol-protest-michigan-stay-home-order/5139472002/ Still bothers me that you can't fish, surf, golf, or go to National Parks and maintain distancing.

There was a bit of an uptick yesterday in the daily US Covid deaths at 1635. The gain was primarily attributed to New York while most other states continue to be somewhat flat. There were a number of resurrections in Utah and Kentucky as the number of Covid deaths was reduced. Not sure how that happens. Sadly, Wyoming had it's first death attributed to the virus.

Significant drops the total US daily deaths for April 12 with a total of 1409. I doubt we will continue to drop as quickly and expect things to flatten a bit from here. New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania showed significant drops. Most other states were slightly down. California still worries me. I liken this whole things to pulling off a band-aid. New York and New Jersey ripped it off pretty quick and my bet is they will be the first area to start getting back to normal. California and Texas are pulling the band-aid off very slowly. Less pain, but it will go on for longer. Illinois is the middle of the road. Wyoming still has zero deaths from Covid, great for them.

Seriously! Can you tell me the number of people that died of heart disease each day over the last week? Numbers are technically pretty close. Given the variation, you could be very wrong with that statement. Would you have been able to make that statement one week ago? (FYI, answer is NO if you check my charts) Will you be able to make that statement in a week or two? Honestly, I am not trying to belittle or make small the Covid issue. Let's just keep it in perspective. Fully support social distancing, limiting gathering sizes, face masks, etc. But let's look at the big picture.

Professionals also show respect to one another even when opinions disagree. Honestly, no need to site anything. The blue items were shown by the pulic.flourish people. I was not contesting that all. You did not seem to take issue with that in your earlier post. the Covid data is all on the chart in the post, and the source has been previously referenced. The math and averaging is pretty basic. Hopefully, no need to teach there. Just saying.

This animated chart GROSSLY misrepresents the fatality of the COVID virus. More high schoolers at work here . There really should be someone that does quality checks on this stuff instead of allowing idiots to misrepresent information. Let's do a little simple math. The average of the deaths shown in blue is the average daily deaths over the course of a year in the US. At 1774 deaths per day, Heart Disease is by far the most common killer at rough 647,000 people per year in the US. This is true and is shown correctly as are the other diseases shown in blue. The data for the COVID deaths, to be on the same playingfield as the other data shown, should be divided by the days that have past starting on Jan 1, 2020 since we don't have any previous annual data. The daily average is the number of total COVID deaths divided by the number of days that have past. That would be 21,370 divided by 102 days (in 2020) equals 209 deaths per day average. So right now it should be shown just below Diabetes on the chart. Lets assume 60K covid deaths for the year, Average is 164 deaths per day for the year, just below Diabetes. Let's assume 100K covid deaths for the year, average is 273 deaths for the year, just above Diabetes Yes, the current daily deaths are much higher than that, but honestly, we are probably at a peak. 1842 is not the average. At 1842 deaths per day, the total for the year would be 672,000 for the year....currently 5 times more than the total WORLD deaths. OMG ____________________________________________ That being said, here is today's chart update. Significant drop from yesterday m0stly due to New York and Michigan's lower numbers. Most other states were pretty flat.

Interesting, this was really fun work back then. I worked for a division of Lockheed Martin, ILS. I think it is now part of ULA with Boeing. I worked on Intelsat and was project manager for the Sirius Satellite launches on the Proton. Fun stuff. This was back in the 90's, early 2000.

Here is the Daily US Covid deaths chart with the updates from yesterday. Slight drop off in New York and New Jersey with a large increase from Michigan. This has been the worst day so far with deaths at 1999. We are still hovering in a fairly tight range here and somewhat flat. New York and New jersey are now under 50% of the total deaths but not by much. Totally agree. I am surprised something significant has not popped up in California, Texas or Illinois, the large population centers. I wonder if it is the transportation system and the more spread out landscape. Sure would be nice to have more info on this. Did they have a relapse and get similar symptoms? No symptoms? Did they die? I hate reporting like this and feel that it is fear mongering. If they told you that all 91 were just fine then it would be no big deal. Instead, they state a fact and provide no significant info and leave you to fear the worst. Here in California I think we are almost overprepared. The local hospital just gave layoff notices to 221 employees. Canceled most elective surgeries and waiting with 250 empty beds for Covid patients. Guess that's why Gavin loaned out respirators to other states. https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/palomar-health-issues-temporary-layoff-notices-to-221-employees/2303014/ Interesting thing about the Chinese: I used to work for a company that managed the integration of US satellites onto US and Russian rockets. I worked the Russian side of the business. China also has/had launched US satellites on the Long March. When we would visit the Satellite manufacturers, if the Chinese were there, the US satellite manufacturers would cover up their satellites with sheets or tarps so they were not visible. When it was just the Russians, everything was left uncovered and people would be working on the satellites. The Satellite manufacturers took a lot of precaution when the Chinese were in the building. The Russians just wanted to make sure the meetings were done by 5PM so they could get to Happy Hour when it started.

Here is the chart with yesterdays numbers. Most states were pretty flat across the board except for Virginia, Maryland and Indiana which showed significant upticks. New Jersey had a significant drop and New York showed a slight drop which is the reason for the lower number of deaths for April 9th. New York and New Jersey together still comprise over 50% of the daily deaths in the US. Michigan seems to be flattening which is good. California and Illinois were also flat. This is the second day in a row that we have seen a reduction in total death for the day in US. Let's hope we can keep that trend going.

Here's the chart with today's numbers. Not much different than yesterday as total was just slightly lower. New York and New Jersey still have the lion's share of the the deaths with over 55% and both posted a slight uptick from yesterday. Most other states were flat except for Illinois which posted a slight uptick.

Yes, and looks like they have updated their data so it is now more in line with the Hopkins data. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Yesterday was a pretty bad day with the deaths jumping up to 1950 for April 7th. Also, looks like New York's numbers the previous day were not a blip but a significant step up. Between New York and New jersey alone, there were over 1000 Covid deaths yesterday, more than half the Covid deaths in the US for April 7th. That whole region is really a very bad area. Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania were also big contributors to the total. All three showed significant jumps from the previous day. The other significant changes were Illinois and California, both registering their highest deaths for one day because of the virus. Texas also registered a high for Covid deaths, but not as ramped as Illinois and California. So, this is where things start to get bad as these are the other three most populated states, albeit a little more spread out and not with the mass transit factor. Louisiana, also registered a daily high as well. Given that the large population states are ramping up, things will be pretty ugly for a while. Hopefully the regional epicenter of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania will stabilize soon.

Actually, I think their work is pretty poor and I don't think Europe will want them. Here are the problems that I see: 1) Their high projections need to be re-evaluated, they are way off. 2) Their daily death totals on April 2 were 600 people too low, by April 6 their total is over 800 people too high. (Based on John Hopkins numbers and what is being reported) 3) The huge jump in Daily deaths from April 3 to April 4 was to play catch-up and get the totals right. Unfortunately, they kept that large value which has caused them to far exceed the current death total (by 800) 4) At no time has the US daily death total reached over 1700 and they have that number twice. I show the highest total as 1486 which was yesterday. We may reach 1700 in 3 to 5 days. That being said, not impressed with the work. Also, the high and low curves should be much smoother due to the overlap of 50 states. The steep drops show that they have errors/inconsistencies in their model. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Also for what it's worth....from the charts: New York had it's worst day yesterday, not a good sign. Hopefully it is just a blip in the numbers. Michigan had a bad day and hopefully the rate starts slowing. They are starting to go vertical. The surprise was Georgia, big jump from the previous days, from an average of around 15 up to 75 yesterday. Maryland, Ohio and South Carolina are starting to ramp. Hopefully that does not continue. Wyoming is still our glimmer of hope with 0 deaths still.

I started graphing the John Hopkins numbers last week just to get a better idea of what is really happening in the US with the virus. There is a lot to be learned about the change in death totals in each state that give a good picture of what is going on. From the numbers: New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Louisiana are the big contributors to the daily death totals. New York seems to have leveled off, same with New Jersey and Louisiana. Michigan is going through a bad spell right now. The reason for the drop in deaths for April 5th was primarily due to New Jersey's lower numbers. I would say that most other states were relatively flat with California posting a drop. I think the high projections thought California, Texas and Illinois would be much worse. California is surprisingly low, fortunately. I owe Gavin an apology. Datawise, I try and record all data around 8AM Pacific time, however, New York updates around 10AM so I add them in later. Some states seem to update throughout the day...some just once a day. Wyoming still has 0 deaths. I think that says something about those wide open spaces. I also compared the John Hopkins totals with the Covid healthdata numbers. They are fairly close, but seems like Covid may have taken the weekend off as they are not as 'smooth'. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections I did not chart confirmed cases, because that number is limited by test availability. I am expecting tomorrows numbers to be higher because of New Jersey and Michigan late day updates, but New York will have the final say. I think the market rallied today because of the one day drop. Don't know if that will continue tomorrow. On the Excel charts, totals are in white, daily change in yellow, start date is April 2.

I think the trick will be to make it such that face masks are "cool', 'dope', 'Sic' or whatever the current 'hip' term is. Management at work has set up a contest to see who has the best looking face mask. The wives and seamstresses have been busy here. Went to Costco last Friday and saw the same thing you mentioned. Some people just don't care, and it's not just the young ones.