motorman7

Interesting assessment. While I whole-heartedly agree with the New York comment and would also throw New jersey into that same category and maybe Louisiana, I do not agree with some of the 15 states that he has mentioned as being 'Encouraging'. California, Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee and Wisconsin charts look terrible for both new infections and death. On the right side of the charts for these states, the numbers are all going up, and some are at or near their all time highs for new infections and deaths (and these will most likely continue up). The reason that these states have data points to the right of the red exponential curve was because of the lockdown. The lockdown artificially flattened the red exponential curve and moved the exponential lift to the right. Now these states are continuing along with an increasing trajectory, only they have shifted the exponential to the right ( and crushed their economy in the meantime). This is going to get much worse for the states I noted above. They should really re-plot the red line for all of the charts. New York and New Jersey are in the best shape right now. They are on the right side of the bell curve, have the largest herd immunity, and have fought the war. The other governors of the states I noted above are going to have to get off their PS4 'Call of Duty' Games and start fighting the real battle.

I have never used a tumbler. Usually I use the wire wheel on my bench grinder for a light cleaning. Also, I have found that platers differ in what they will do prior to plating your parts. The plating shop just down the road here requires that I have all the parts stripped and in very good shape before plating, so it is a lot of work. Also, I think their finish is a bit too dark and not enough shine or rainbow. The place I use in Phoenix is great and I do very little prep on the parts. I just wire wheel the heavily rusted items and parts with paint on them. I am pretty sure that they tumble and clean the parts before plating. I noticed the the rubber on some of the parts, like the oil pressure cable support on the engine mount, or the speedo cable supports have the rubber pretty beaten up, and almost falling off. I just re-dip those parts in the liquid plastic stuff. The finish on the parts is just about perfect.

The one video looks like the pump is working well. Typically, I will disconnect one of the hoses going to the carb float bowls to see if fuel is pumping out. That will tell you if the pump is working. Put a rag or cup under hose to catch the fuel.

Yes, I think the face masks and social distancing should be required by law. No mask, no service. Also think we need to start opening up in most regions. Major cities definitely need to be more measured in opening up and use caution. Smaller cities should open up, again, with mandatory PPE and distancing. I think the whole testing thing is a stall tactic and a waste of time. If you get tested, then get infected by an asymptomatic on the way home or in the following day or two, it does you no good.

And here's another thing that happens when we are so myopically focused on Covid that we let everything else fall by the wayside. https://www.yahoo.com/news/vaccine-rates-drop-dangerously-parents-192710274.html I really think we are out of control here and making a lot of bad decisions. I think Sweden will come out smelling like a rose and the rest of us will be looking pretty dumb. Only time will tell.

Here is the latest chart of the US Covid deaths. Looks like the peak may have been reached, but I think the slope down is going to be a long one. I also plotted the charts for New York and California. New York's actually looks very good, nice bell top and tapering off on the right. California looks like it is just getting started, pretty scary really. I think several months from now Cuomo will look like a hero and Newsom, not so much. This site referenced previously by @Zed Head has some nice state by state charts. Some these states on the down side of the bell curve should start opening up. Those still not reaching their peak are a concern. https://covid-19.mdmetrix.com/grid.html?list=new_case_curve

Latest chart update. New Yorks numbers are still toggling up and down for some reason. Curve looks to finally be leveling off a bit. Will see if things stay that way.

More pics from the body shop. It is really getting pretty close now. Nice to see.

Winning the Battle but losing the War? What concerns me most about the quarantine and lockdown is the impact that it has on our daily lives and ultimately those that will die as a result of it. While we may be sparing a good number of people from Covid-19 fatality, it will be coming at the cost of increased, suicides, domestic abuse, drug overdoses, etc. https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/suicide-overdose-deaths-coronavirus-will-have-indirect-fatalities https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/15/domestic-abuse-killings-more-than-double-amid-covid-19-lockdown I bring this up because personally, in my circle of friends sadly, there have been 2 suicides in the last two weeks, yet I am not aware of any covid infections. Unfortunately, this does not seem to be nationally important at this time, especially since the media is getting a lot of play out of the coronavirus pandemic. It made me think, if the number of suicides, overdoses, and domestic abuse killings were to outnumber the Covid deaths, would we still quarantine and lockdown? Sadly, I think the answer is yes because I think this whole issue is not about savings people’s lives anymore, but who is right and who is wrong. Unfortunately, I think we may be reaching a point where the cure is worse than the poison. Just my thoughts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States

I totally agree, my wife calls it car jewelry!

Got parts back from the plating shop. They always do very nice work.

Looks like trajectory is starting flatten here. Will be good when the red line starts moving down.

Colorado posts their Covid numbers as of 9:10 AM PST, April 20th. I am a bit suspect here.

Yes, good to see that taper off. Here is the latest Daily US Covid deaths chart. I added a 'polynomial' averaging indicator to show the trajectory. As time progresses, this should look more like a bell. I noticed New York re-adjusted their numbers again, more in line with the original earlier numbers. That 'smooths' the curve a little bit. As we head into the weekend, I am wondering if we will see the Sunday dip in the numbers again.

Yes, I guess that is another way of approaching it. There are a lot of options here and a lot of factors that come into play. My thought with 'releasing' the younger people out first was that as a city, local group, or state we could develop a herd immunity starting with the young people who are less susceptible to the virus. Then, slowly introduce us older folks. The asymptomatic part does not bother me, in fact I think it is great (other than the fact that you could carelessly spread it to those with compromised immunity). If we could all be exposed to the virus and have no symptoms, that would be an incredible thing. It is immunity essentially. However, such is not the case, and the whole issue is far more complex than that. Off hand, I think I would still feel comfortable releasing the under 40 crowd first. The over 40 crowd is much more challenging. Also, 40 is not necessarily my line in the sand for cut-off. I would need a lot more data to determine what would be the ideal age as a cut-off. I am just throwing that out as a reference. From a data standpoint, I would pick the age where the 'death by age group' starts to accelerate or increase in slope. Nice charts and great for a quick read. Also, good explanation as to how to read them. As they have noted, we want the data points to be to the right of the red curve and ideally to the right of the lower dotted blue line.

Totally agree with the tiered approach. You can not unleash everybody at once. That would be a disaster. Face masks and social distancing still need to take place even when people are out and about. Personally, I really think they need to look at the age factor in all of this. Unfortunately, I think it is being largely ignored. The majority of the deaths are in people 60 years old and older, often with underlying conditions. Yes there are a few outliers under 60 that do not survive , but the percentage is very low (The media will produce a documentary on every one of those under 60 individuals to try and persuade you otherwise). I would personally start with allowing much more freedom to those under 40. Then maybe several weeks later, we up it to 50 years of age, then 60, then 70, etc. I don't mind waiting as I am closer to 60. Open spaces need to be opened up. Beaches, parks, national forests, lakes, rivers, oceans, etc need to be opened up. Again, keep the distance, wear a mask, and start with those under 40. after a while, let us older folks in. Open up the restaurants, but keep every other table open. You wear a mask until you are seated. Open it up, but be smart about it. No mask, no service. Keep the special hours shopping. I like that as does my MIL. We really need to start getting smart about this, unfortunately there are very few managers in our government. We have hired a bunch of rich people who are still getting paychecks and getting advice from other rich people (right Bill) and have no clue what it is like to live paycheck to paycheck or without a paycheck. They are out of touch, unfortunately, we elected them thinking the money made them smart.

Here are the latest charts. Not sure what happened with New York numbers but it is a pretty monstrous jump with over 2K added deaths. From a chart standpoint, this will probably be our peak because of the anomaly. Other notable numbers are a rise in Connecticut, Massachusetts and......California. Will be interesting to see where California goes in the next few days. Yes, this is quite interesting. One King or 50 Kings. Personally, I prefer the 50 kings as it allows me to move to a more favorable kingdom if I so choose. Also, I think all states have their own challenges that need to be handled differently. You can't manage Wyoming like New York, etc. I think the thing I miss the most (other than the major loss of freedom) is the local restaurants being closed. And yet our fast food places are going full speed ahead. I guess that way we can get infected faster. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-two-mcdonalds-locations-kona-hawaii-linked-dozen-virus-cases/

Yes, totally agree on that. Personally, I hate going to the doctors or hospitals and pretty much would need to be on my death bed before going. Just the smell of hospitals and medical facilities makes me nauseous. My wife still tells the story how for her doctors visits for ultrasounds during her pregnancies (decades ago), that I would start getting sick in the hospital parking lot even before the we got into the building. The flip side to this, however, is it seems that a lot of the deaths seem to have pre-existing conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes, etc. So perhaps overall, the Covid deaths lead to a reduction in the heart disease, cancer and diabetes deaths. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/07/new-york-coronavirus-deaths-data-shows-most-had-underlying-illnesses/2960151001/ https://www.yahoo.com/news/obesity-biggest-factor-driving-york-155800441.html ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Really starting to have a hard time with this whole quarantine thing. I think it has gotten beyond stupid. I came across these two articles yesterday and the irony is tragic. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/us/florida-inmate-coronavirus-murder.html Do we count this murder as a Covid Death? https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/north-county-sheriffs-deputies-ticket-people-violating-stay-at-home-order/2305834/ Really, 6 months in jail? _________________________________________________________________________________________ I still think for California, we are a ticking time bomb. The lockdown is just delaying the inevitable. It will happen, just later than everyone else. Only difference is our economy will be much worse off because of the delay. And there is nothing I can do about it which is probably the most frustrating thing.

Started polishing the slotted mags. Will have to check the date on the tires here as they seem to be older and may need to be replaced. They are Uniroyal 'Tiger Paws'. I am old enough to remember the commercial for these tires. Getting a little impatient here waiting for the body.

Pretty bad day yesterday, April 14th, with a big spike in US Covid daily deaths. New Jersey had a large spike along with Michigan, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Texas and Ohio. Looks like we may not have hit the peak yet and are not flattening on deaths. Odd thing about the chart are the dips on April 5 and April 12, both a Sunday. Makes me think some states may be under-reporting or not reporting on the weekends. People are starting to get restless. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/15/lansing-capitol-protest-michigan-stay-home-order/5139472002/ Still bothers me that you can't fish, surf, golf, or go to National Parks and maintain distancing.

There was a bit of an uptick yesterday in the daily US Covid deaths at 1635. The gain was primarily attributed to New York while most other states continue to be somewhat flat. There were a number of resurrections in Utah and Kentucky as the number of Covid deaths was reduced. Not sure how that happens. Sadly, Wyoming had it's first death attributed to the virus.

Significant drops the total US daily deaths for April 12 with a total of 1409. I doubt we will continue to drop as quickly and expect things to flatten a bit from here. New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania showed significant drops. Most other states were slightly down. California still worries me. I liken this whole things to pulling off a band-aid. New York and New Jersey ripped it off pretty quick and my bet is they will be the first area to start getting back to normal. California and Texas are pulling the band-aid off very slowly. Less pain, but it will go on for longer. Illinois is the middle of the road. Wyoming still has zero deaths from Covid, great for them.

Seriously! Can you tell me the number of people that died of heart disease each day over the last week? Numbers are technically pretty close. Given the variation, you could be very wrong with that statement. Would you have been able to make that statement one week ago? (FYI, answer is NO if you check my charts) Will you be able to make that statement in a week or two? Honestly, I am not trying to belittle or make small the Covid issue. Let's just keep it in perspective. Fully support social distancing, limiting gathering sizes, face masks, etc. But let's look at the big picture.

Professionals also show respect to one another even when opinions disagree. Honestly, no need to site anything. The blue items were shown by the pulic.flourish people. I was not contesting that all. You did not seem to take issue with that in your earlier post. the Covid data is all on the chart in the post, and the source has been previously referenced. The math and averaging is pretty basic. Hopefully, no need to teach there. Just saying.

This animated chart GROSSLY misrepresents the fatality of the COVID virus. More high schoolers at work here . There really should be someone that does quality checks on this stuff instead of allowing idiots to misrepresent information. Let's do a little simple math. The average of the deaths shown in blue is the average daily deaths over the course of a year in the US. At 1774 deaths per day, Heart Disease is by far the most common killer at rough 647,000 people per year in the US. This is true and is shown correctly as are the other diseases shown in blue. The data for the COVID deaths, to be on the same playingfield as the other data shown, should be divided by the days that have past starting on Jan 1, 2020 since we don't have any previous annual data. The daily average is the number of total COVID deaths divided by the number of days that have past. That would be 21,370 divided by 102 days (in 2020) equals 209 deaths per day average. So right now it should be shown just below Diabetes on the chart. Lets assume 60K covid deaths for the year, Average is 164 deaths per day for the year, just below Diabetes. Let's assume 100K covid deaths for the year, average is 273 deaths for the year, just above Diabetes Yes, the current daily deaths are much higher than that, but honestly, we are probably at a peak. 1842 is not the average. At 1842 deaths per day, the total for the year would be 672,000 for the year....currently 5 times more than the total WORLD deaths. OMG ____________________________________________ That being said, here is today's chart update. Significant drop from yesterday m0stly due to New York and Michigan's lower numbers. Most other states were pretty flat.