Pilgrim

Well, that does sum it up! Given the fact that the only real data we have is current hospitalizations and deaths, it's pretty hard to get an accurate estimate of scope. What we hear reported is projections of infections and deaths based on varying sets of assumptions. There are lots of "if...then" calculations, mostly focused on various levels of actions that are being taken to suppress the peak number of infections. What we can't report is the number of actual infections, because of two things: first, the number of tests available. There aren't enough to establish the scope of the problem, so in most areas testing is restricted to people who already have symptoms. NPR reported this AM that the entire state of Montana gets 600 tests per day. If they need more, tough toenails - that's all they get. So they're trying to use 500 per day and have a small reserve. To some degree this is reflected in most areas - they can't test to find out who *might* have it, just to confirm whether or not symptomatic people actually have it. Second, we can't tell how many infections are present because of processing. In some areas (NPR report) processing times are up to 13 days. That's long enough for an entire set of infections to be passed along and start manifesting in a new group, so no timeline can be established in anything like real time - it's all retrospective that doesn't become visible for a couple of weeks. After thinking this out and writing it, no wonder we're running so far behind. The failure to act when the first information was available, and the subsequent denial and stalling, has put us a couple of months behind the pandemic. That leads to a discussion of masks and other PPE, but I don't need to get into that in this post.

Nice ambition, but not realistic. First, people in the US won't participate well. Second, even if we had 100% participation it would be weeks before we could establish data to tell us it was safe to open the door to more group activities. You can chalk off April with high confidence.

That's a timeline of March to August 2021. Projections have consistently been 12-18 months - at the soonest - to develop a reliable vaccine. So where we are now, hopefully with the addition of more available PPE and a dropoff in new infections, is where we're going to be for a while. I'm thinking the major sports are history this year, unless perhaps some can operate in empty facilities with online audiences. I'm also not planning any trips to my alma mater for football, as I think that season will be canceled.

Got my 1983 280ZX Turbo running RIGHT for the first time in 2+ years yesterday!! It was missing above 3500 RPM, and after trying a laundry list of possibilities, the fix turned out to be simply disconnecting the ECU for a half-hour to reset it. Once it was re-connected, the ZX is running perfectly and I spent a while touring the area and pulling shifts at 5500+ RPM. Go figure...but I'm delighted! Since it was running right, I filled up and bought premium at $2.74 a gallon, which is a good price for this area. I haven't seen it at that price for a while. I own the ZX and two older BMW 3-series, all of which run premium. One thing you can do during a pandemic is catch up on car maintenance. Today it's rotors, pads, and packing the front wheel bearings. I think I'll throw in a brake fluid flush while I have it up on jackstands.

Might we please avoid using the term "The Chinese Virus?" There are enough racially loaded terms without promoting the use of that one.

I have a supply of nitrile gloves for keeping my hands clean while working on cars. When I must go out and get something, I get out of the car and out the gloves on. When I get back to the car, I remove the gloves by pulling them inside out. I drive home, put the gloves on and carry stuff inside. I then spray Microban cleaner on paper towels and wipe down everything, including fruits and veggies. I then wipe down any counters where I placed things, and the door handles I touched. The gloves are now clean from the solution, so I save them to re-use. It hit me this evening that I also need to spray the shoes I wore out before entering the house. I'm glad to have a box of those nitrile gloves around. Didn't think they would be used for this.

It's better to clean it out before you die, but unfortunately not everyone gets the chance or is willing to do so. Glad you were able to get some good stuff there; I hope the rest doesn't go into a landfill or get recycled.

Having already commented about the weirdness of thought process going on, I don't need to comment further here. I grew up with guns but although I am reasonably proficient with them, they never have assumed the importance for me that they seem to have for some others. As noted, no one's opinion changes based on Internet chatter. The current administration has really screwed the pooch because they dismantled part of our protection against pandemics, using the argument that it was part of budget cuts. We got started late and just a couple of weeks ago Trump was still claiming that it would be over quickly. He's put the whole country two months behind where it should be in preparedness. Any administration would clearly have had trouble dealing with this situation; that's shown by what's going on in other countries. Trump's insistence on putting political expediency ahead of science has really bitten the whole country in the butt this time. About all we can do is minimize our exposure at this point. Folks like @Av8ferg who have to be out and working deserve our respect. I live in a college town, in a well-educated neighborhood, and the people here are doing an excellent job of staying home and being careful when they walk out the door.

Beautifully said! Unfortunately the outcome of thoughtless action often includes negative results.

There's a basic question around the surge in firearms sales that I don't understand. People want them "for protection" and "for defense." The question that's never answered is: defense or protection against WHAT? In today's Denver Post, there was an article that gave me a chuckle. The title was "What's Essential? In the US It's Pot, Golf and Guns." This is a clever title and also a reflection of a uniquely US situation. There is no other country where the assumption that the answer to any undefined problem is to arm yourself. In that article, the Texas Attorney General was quoted: "If you have a breakdown of society, well then our first line to defend ourselves is ourselves, so I think having a weapon is very important for your personal safety." He was defending their designation of gun shops as essential businesses. But there is nothing specific about his comment other than an undefined "breakdown of society." Really? That's what it will take? I haven't heard any reports of society breaking down, nor any predictions it will happen, nor do the multiple news sources I tap every day indicate that events are moving in that direction. Did I miss a breakdown that's scheduled for later this week? (Dear diary, society is scheduled to break down late this week, made an appointment so as not to miss it.) People are responding to a vague notion that "someone or something" will be coming for them. This makes no logical sense. We don't live in Zombieland, and there's no realistic prospect of that occurring, regardless of how many dystopian movies people have seen. This is herd mentality; action with no logic or coherent thought. There is something uniquely American about the response to an imaginary crisis being "buy more guns." As someone who began target shooting at age 12 and as an owner of firearms (all locked in a gun safe), I don't understand this impulse. If anything, I am more concerned about thousands of people buying firearms they don't know how to use and can't be trained with due to the lockdown conditions. Every one of those guns sitting in some untrained owner's sock drawer is an accident waiting to happen. PS: Many firearms become good investments, but only if they're bought used at prices well below new retail. It takes years or decades for many firearms to appreciate above their purchase price. As long as you have 20 or more years to let them appreciate, you can come out ahead. In the short run, not so much.

About the vaccine comment above - all the evidence says there's none coming this year. If we get a bit lucky, we'll have one early in 2021. Every report I've heard says this year is simply faster than can be achieved. IMO the best bets for this year are (1) distancing consistently enough to take the peak off the curve, and (2) just maybe an existing drug will be found that has a secondary use, providing some ability to counteract its worst effects. Note that #2 is more wish than probability. Right now the Denver CBS station is interviewing an E.R. doctor, and he says that he simply expects all the E.R. personnel to get the corona virus eventually. He sees it as something that's pretty much inevitable. Direct quote: "We see a lot of death in emergency medicine, we're kind of used to it, but I don't think any of us are prepared for what were going to see in the next 10-20 months."

As the old army sergeant said, "Hey youze guys..make damn sure to clean off them dingleberries."

Either because of the NRA or other related political forces, it appears that gun shops have been deemed "essential" in the states I've heard of. I personally haven't a clue what the justification is, but there has been a huge upsurge in firearms sales. I debated this online on another forum, and the best justification anyone could offer was "... it’s not zombies I’m worried about. It’s our own government in this state and others wanting what I have!" I suspect that vaguely paranoid feeling and distrust of "gummint" is deeply rooted in many. Personally, right now the last thing that would enter my mind related to safety is adding a firearm. I hope those here are focused on preserving the health of themselves and their family, and on doing so in positive ways.

MSNBC and some NPR stations are no longer carrying Trump's "press conferences" because of the confusing and inaccurate statements that he makes. They make it clear in their announcements that they do not want to confuse and misinform the public, and will cover the accurate and helpful information that is presented. https://deadline.com/2020/03/coronavirus-donald-trump-nor-station-kuow-1202892198/ This is the first president in our history who is so out of touch with reality and unwilling to listen to his experts that his press conferences are not covered by some broadcast media.

Of course China has been pilfering ideas from other countries for years. There has been unending press coverage of this related to everything from CDs and software up to science and manufacturing. It's something their government either encourages or winks at. We all know that. Turning it into accusations that they've actively created a worldwide disease problem is too far a stretch.

There are problems with many of these assertions. First, the concerns in the first two articles above are intellectual property, not physical theft or misuse of genetic material. Second, in the case of the "lethal viruses" article, there is no claim that these materials were stolen. The issue is whether it was appropriate for those materials to be shared with China, based on their potential uses there. The Chinese genetic manipulation articles are two years old, well known, and is a matter of international concern. However, it also follows the general rule that things which can be done, sooner or later will be done. China's control over medical and genetic research is definitely weaker than that of the US, and that's an ongoing matter of concern in the scientific community. However, there is nothing secret about the fact that this took place, and information about it has been quite available. Hyperbole, sensationalism and reaching a conclusion equating Chinese scientists with Nazi death camp doctors are all out of line, and frankly do no favors to the author or to the discussion on this website. Let's not get into blaming China for the world's misfortunes, which is exactly where rhetoric like that above takes us.

In the interest of maintaining some degree of sanity, please cite the source of this assertion. I don't believe you can support it or defend it. Viruses mutate constantly, and they arise where they happen to mutate in a way that is meaningful. That could be in Wuhan, Chicago or Albuquerque. The current thinking is that this particular mutation happened in animals and crossed the animal-human barrier in Wuhan. It could as easily done it in a farmer's market in Denver or Fargo. Dr. Fauci noted that this virus is RNA-based, and that such viruses mutate constantly. Most of the mutations are not meaningful and do not cause reactions or problems, but this one did. Let's avoid conspiracy theory nuttiness, please.

Unfortunately that's one of the best ways to spread the virus. No one knows who has it and it has a long incubation period. Those who come back from the party pass it to others - including those who are sheltering from it. Very simply, I assume that 100% of the time, anything IMPOTUS says is a lie. As long as I assume that, I will be right about 75% of the time, based on his track record. Anything he says in a press conference is and will be (1) uninformed, (2) ignorant of facts, and (3) slanted to stroke his ego and get him re-elected. Fauci and the other experts who follow science are the only ones whose statements have value.

I think it's well established that the administration did all it could to deny there was a problem, and their avoidance cost us time and reduced our preparedness. My concern at this point is that IMPOTUS (to be accurate) will try to dump the health care measures too early in order to make the economy look better and get re-elected, since he is is own highest priority. To the extent that he succeeds, the curve of the outbreak will not be reduced, and more people will die unnecessarily. I may be wrong, but this looks quite obvious. My thought is that governors who have taken action will continue to support "shelter in place" after IMPOTUS tries to shut it down, which will somewhat mitigate the infection and death count in the states where the lockdown continues.

Thank heavens that the current occupant brings to the stage other people who can speak in complete sentences. Once again, the current occupant muddies the water, presents contradictory ideas about distributing drugs, and generally ad-libs his way into semi-coherency. He also said that states would be "opening up soon" although the reality is going exactly the opposite way. More states are closing down public activities every day. There is no leadership on the national level. I'm grateful that most governors are smart enough to take independent action that is needed. We are still very much in shutdown mode, and I don't see that changing for a few weeks. One thing that's true and IMPOTUS referred to: business can't stay closed forever. I believe there's a shorter window for business to tolerate being closed than the health situation mandates. I expect businesses to begin the re-opening process before health authorities want them to.

If you want a sobering look at reality, read this. Even reading part of it slaps me upside the head. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

I'm not a fan of Mike Pence at all, as I think he's a "weirdsmobile." But that aside.... I have to give him props for being a really solid public speaker. He comes across as thoughtful, well organized and well spoken. He's certainly a great way to make coherent statements and keep the current occupant away from the mic.

Regardless of the politics, it does not help anyone to deny reality, to say that a virus will never get here, and to spout repeated falsehoods about the situation. How many times do I have to hear Trump deny making any mistakes when first alerted to the virus, and then say that nothing like this has ever happened before, totally ignoring the Plague in Europe and the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic that caused roughly 675,000 deaths in the US? (And 50 million worldwide.) Anyone can make mistakes. When a major problem occurs, mistakes will be made. But not everyone refuses to acknowledge having made any mistakes, no matter how trivial. Not everyone goes on a national TV broadcast and flatly denies responsibility for actions that are documented as belonging to them. Not everyone blames media and everyone but themselves for anything that goes wrong. Without being more pointed, that's enough to lay out my total lack of respect for, and faith in, the current occupant. Thank heavens for the experts and scientists who the administration has been forced to put on stage to speak to the American public. They do indeed know what they're doing, even if their statements are directly contradicted by the administration. The only people I believe are the scientists and experts who are doing the actual work. I automatically dismiss anything said by members of the administration, who adhere to the formula of spending 80% of their comments trying to quote the party line, and 20% kissing Trump's butt. But here's the sense I make out of it: - It's a virus. it's not going away, contrary to repeated assertions by Trump. We will be living with it for the foreseeable future, so our goal is to mitigate and manage it, not eradicate it, which has no historical precedent. (Even smallpox has not been eradicated, there was a small outbreak last year in a third world country.) - If we develop a vaccine, that will not happen before early 2021. It can't happen earlier. However, we may find that other drugs already on the market have positive effects on this virus, and if so, we may get help from them this summer or fall. - Long term, our goal must be to manage this virus like we manage the flu virus. There will probably be some buildup of immunity, but if it mutates (unknown at this time) there will be repeated seasons where we deal with it. A vaccine will be a critical part of managing it as an ongoing part of life. That's the scientific part the way it lays out to me after 39 years of working with scientists doing genetic research. As far as the lockdown, I expect that not to exceed 60 days (but more likely the end of April), because otherwise the economy will crater and thousands of businesses will fail. There will be a point where we have to open the doors and let people move around in some fashion just to preserve our economy.

It appears to me that overall, people are really trying to make the separation and isolation approach work. I think the economic impact is going to force more businesses to open within a couple of weeks; this event has really made it evident how many businesses have few or no reserves and require constant operation to survive. IMO we're going to be figuring it out as we go. If those decisions are heavily influenced by scientists rather than political expediency, we'll be better off. As far as the virus, I expect us to be living with it for the foreseeable future. Viruses don't just disappear, but hopefully this one can be suppressed to the point where it affects fewer people and we keep the medical load within our capability to deal with. The big fear now is having a huge surge of infections which overwhelm the medical system's capacity. It will be great if some of the existing drugs they're looking at turn out to have secondary uses which can limit the spread of the virus. There is study going on right now of a existing malaria treatment which might help. I predict that the eventual outcome will be managing the virus to the point where it has equal or less impact than flu, but I don't see much potential for eradicating it. That's not something that history tells us will succeed. The fact is that we got caught short by denials and stalling on the part of the current administration. We're playing catch-up, but the good news is that once the US decides to do something, we can achieve tremendous things. I have a daughter who runs the dieticans at four eating disorder clinics; she had a sore throat last night but there's no hope of her getting a test, as Denver has a couple of hundred tests a day for millions of people and they are being used for high needs people. We all know the problems with supplies of masks, ventilators and cleaning materials. My youngest brother is a nurse at Western State Hospital in Washington, a psychiatric care facility. He is face to face with the potential for cases there, although fortunately they haven't had any inside the facility yet. @NorthernZ ...I wish you the very best luck. Be well and get through this!