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    Governor Cuomo is on TV now.  Want a contrast with the other guy?  He's worth watching.  

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    1 hour ago, CanTechZ said:

    No where in our site guidelines (snippet attached) does it say that the Open Chit-Chat forum is exempt from the rules. I agree with @AZ-240z that we are treading a little to close to political bias with some posts, just my opinion.

    Capture.JPG

    These are extraordinary times.  I hope that Mike will make an exception.  I don't see that anyone is getting personal, which is the main reason that anyone avoids political discussion.  

    I've enjoyed the thread and think that we're all learning here.  And, just like other threads, there's the Ignore button.  Or, just don't click.  We're all adults and should be able to control our impulses.

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    Don't really know what to think of this.  If more testing is supposed to lower the death rate by ID'ing more people that weren't hospitalized, why is the death rate at 4.5% now.  It sat at 3.4% for quite a while (I was doing the math).

    22,295 deaths / 492,503 confirmed = 0.0452 as of this posting.

    image.png

     

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    Death Rate is worse. You need to compare the dead today against the number infected ~2 weeks ago as it normally takes ~ 2-4 weeks from symptoms to death

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    @Mike  Or anyone that is IT savvy.  Can you do anything with the free data?  Might be a side-project for you.  Maybe even a different web site.  The Financial Times took the data and extracted country by country data. But they have a paywall so it's not available for viewing.

    Of course, here in North America, it would be nice to drill down to counties, provinces and states.

    Just a thought.  Here's a link - https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

    https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

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    16 minutes ago, 240260280 said:

    Death Rate is worse. You need to compare the dead today against the number infected ~2 weeks ago as it normally takes ~ 2-4 weeks from symptoms to death

    That's a good point.  Deaths need to catch up.  Many have been expecting the death rate to drop as more testing was done.  The global data includes Italy and Spain though and they probably have very little testing, just sick people at the hospitals.  But that implies that the actual numbers of infected are much higher.  

    The curve seems to be getting worse, however it's viewed though.  Don't see any flattening.

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    Locally, 59 identified Coronavirus cases, seven deaths, National Guard set up a Field Hospital in the nearby County Fairground.

    I'm sheltered in place, rationing toilet paper, and binge watching Tiger King on Netflix.  I'm looking forward to waking up from this bad dream.

    Dennis

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    image.png

     

    As I said before, The chart above is a chart of Test Kit Production and has little relevance to the actual number of cases of COVID-19,which is easily 5X higher than this chart shows.  Not sure why you keep showing this chart.   It will be irrelevant until the number of kits equals those that show symptoms and are tested.  Then you can multiply by 5 and get a rough idea of actual cases.

     

    ASYMPTOMATIC is the big issue here.

     

    I have said this before, the item that makes this virus unique is that most people are ASYPMTOMATIC.  Italy said 75% of people are Asymptomatic, China says 86%.  This means roughly 4 out of 5 people will exhibit no symptoms at all, NONE!  Those with NO symptoms will most likely not go to get checked.  In the US, they won’t even look at you unless you have some kind of symptom.

    Italy said their biggest problem was Asymptomatic spreaders.  They don’t even know they are carriers, and thus exert less or no caution.  

    Germany tested those that were in contact with Symptomatic spreaders, so their number includes Asymptomatic people which is why their death rate number is so low.

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    10 minutes ago, motorman7 said:

    Not sure why you keep showing this chart. 

    It shows the trend.  Trends are actually more informative than single point data )my opinion).  Not sure why what you said before is more important than what other people have to say.  Yours is just one more opinion.  Glad to have them but no need to try to assert superiority.  Don't know your background or why you would know more than anyone else.  You're just another guy on the internet.

    How did you come up with "easily 5X"?  Citations, please.

    p.s. don't overlook the concept of "sampling".  Surveys never get all of the data.  They sample representative populations and project out.  Producing estimates and showing trends.  Which can be useful in understanding a problem.

    Edited by Zed Head

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     Our son's girlfriend was tested for Covid19 ten days ago by Providence Health. No results back yet. They're stuck at home waiting when they could be working essential service jobs. I don't believe this administration is interested in real infection rate data. Wealth takes priority over health, as usual.

     Sign me

     Disgusted but hopeful.

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    18 minutes ago, Zed Head said:

    It shows the trend. 

    It shows the rate of Test Kit Production which is very important.  However, it has no relevance to Mortality rate.

    As for news articles:

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/86-of-people-with-coronavirus-are-walking-around-undetected-study-says/

    “Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says.

    Six of every seven cases – 86% — were not reported in China before travel restrictions were implemented, driving the spread of the virus, according to a study Monday in the journal Science.

     

    https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1165

    In an open letter to the authorities in the Tuscany region,1 Romagnani wrote that the great majority of people infected with covid-19—50-75%—were asymptomatic, but represented “a formidable source” of contagion.

    “The percentage of people infected, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases, particularly, but not only, among young people. Isolation of asymptomatics is essential for controlling the spread of the virus and the seriousness of the epidemic,” he said

    ___________

    For what it is worth, I am an engineer and would consider myself an expert when it comes to data and statistics.  I have made my living from it for the last 35 years.  An expert in that I have made presentations to rooms of NASA scientists and engineers just to name a few, so I am extremely comfortable with data and charts.

     

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    1 minute ago, motorman7 said:

    An expert in that I have made presentations to rooms of NASA scientists and engineers just to name a few, so I am extremely comfortable with data and charts.

    So, where did "easily 5X" come from?

    I have my own area of expertise.  It leads to questions like the one I've asked.

    One of the problems with being smart is that people start to believe that everything that they think is correct.  They don't get questioned because they are known as "experts".  "He must know what he is talking about, he's an expert".  So, they get a little bit lazy.

    In my field you have to show the math and the sources.  Otherwise it's just an opinion.  And everybody has one of those.

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    19 minutes ago, Zed Head said:

    So, where did "easily 5X" come from?

    I took the average of 75% and 86% to come up with roughly 80% Asymptomatic.  80% is 4 out of 5, that is 4 out of every 5 are Asymptomatic.  Thus only 1 in 5 are Symptomatic.  To get the Total number of COVID-19 infected, I multiplied the number of Asymptomatic (1 in 5) by 5 to get the Total Covid-19 infected.  That is 5X

     

    Note: this number does not include those that are just mildly sick from COVID-19 and don't get tested or thought perhaps they had the flu.  Thus the "easily 5X". 

    Edited by motorman7

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    34 minutes ago, Mark Maras said:

     Our son's girlfriend was tested for Covid19 ten days ago by Providence Health. No results back yet. They're stuck at home waiting when they could be working essential service jobs. I don't believe this administration is interested in real infection rate data. Wealth takes priority over health, as usual.

     Sign me

     Disgusted but hopeful.

    She's in our prayers.

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    There is actually some good information in that first Science article.

    You should just use your expertise to extract and interpret the data (edit - with the reasoning behind the interpretation.  Not just opinion form), if you want to add something to this thread.  The people at Johns Hopkins would be considered experts also, they produced the plot of confirmed cases.  If you have a problem with the plot, send them a message.  Your credentials should carry some weight.  It would be a lot more useful than piddling around in this thread.  At least for an expert NASA consultant.

    Here's the email for the Johns Hopkins guy.  I actually sent him a message in the early days suggesting the per capita data would be more informative than what he was showing.  No reply.  Maybe you'll have better luck.

    https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

    image.png

    Edited by Zed Head

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    Here we go.  Trump will be classifying states by risk factor,. So if you get defined as high risk just jump in your car and head out to a place where you can party freely.

     

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    Flying.  Packed in an airplane.  Planes are still flying.  Apparently, if I read this right, some airlines are leaving the center seat open.  So at least you'll be two feet away from your neighbor.

    "American will also block 50% of all middle seats and all seats adjacent to Flight Attendant jump seats on every flight."

    http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/American-Airlines-Adjusts-Food-and-Lounge-Service-in-Response-to-COVID-19-OPS-DIS-03/?c=EML|AADV|20200325|ADV|MKT|SOLO||Video_FB

    Edited by Zed Head

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    @motorman7 I've realized, as I pointed out above, that your real beef is with Johns Hopkins.  They're well known as experts too, so us laypeople just have to choose among the experts.  If you can find a better graphical representation of what's happening that would be great.  Just like weather forecasts, they might not be perfect but they're a start.  Something to think about.

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    25 minutes ago, Zed Head said:

    Here we go.  Trump will be classifying states by risk factor.

    He better consider the liability with that BS. I'm in a low risk state so if I have to go back to normal and get the virus we'll be filing lawsuits out the wazoo.

    I'm thinking insurance for all will be a huge point in the upcoming election. I'll vote for whoever's going to get that done. Red blue purple, I don't care.

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     G7. Foreign ministers representing seven industrialized nations failed to agree on a joint statement on Wed. after the Trump administration insisted on referring to the Covid -19 outbreaks as the "Wuhan virus", three officials from the Group of Seven countries told The Washington Post.The term, the officials said, is viewed as needlessly divisive at a time when international cooperation is required to slow the global pandemic.

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    41 minutes ago, Zed Head said:

    @motorman7 I've realized, as I pointed out above, that your real beef is with Johns Hopkins.  They're well known as experts too, so us laypeople just have to choose among the experts.  If you can find a better graphical representation of what's happening that would be great.  Just like weather forecasts, they might not be perfect but they're a start.  Something to think about.

    It would be nice if they would at least take a 'guesstimate' of Total Covid-19 Cases.  I would think they could at least have a chart with upper and lower limit estimates.  This chart is a bit misleading.  It is real exact data, just not the true complete picture.

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    2 hours ago, Zed Head said:

    @Mike  Or anyone that is IT savvy.  Can you do anything with the free data?  Might be a side-project for you.  Maybe even a different web site.  The Financial Times took the data and extracted country by country data. But they have a paywall so it's not available for viewing.

    Of course, here in North America, it would be nice to drill down to counties, provinces and states.

    Just a thought.  Here's a link - https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

    https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

    He needs a "side project" like I need another screwdriver. LOL

     

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    I’ve decided to back out of this thread. I can’t stand the politicization of everything in my Iife...it was one of the reasons I loved this forum.. Society has managed to shove a hot political fork in every walk of my life and I quite frankly find it depressing. Political bickering just makes me unhappy. It’s divided the country in a bad way, divided friendships, communities and neighbors. People do unspeakable acts to others because someone wears a MAGA hat or someone else has a rainbow sticker on their car. It’s not want civilized, loving, and good people do. I don’t like to play in those waters. I don’t care who you love, what you believe, who your God is or who you choose to support politically. I chose to judge people by their individual character, morals and how they live their lives and this is what I teach my kids. We have one part of the political spectrum that demands “Tolerance” from others but they have no tolerance for people who don’t think like them. Any speech is okay as long as it agrees with “their” world view. We fail to recognize that most people are more alike than different. We are too busy focusing on how we differ. When we don’t agree we choose the label people to socially isolate them from society and discredit them many times unjustly with terms like Racist, homophobe or any laundry list of names.
    Once I realized that I have little influence on what happens in Washington and that I should spend my life force focusing on my family, friends, faith and the things that make me happy, my life is more fulfilling. I can’t watch the bobble heads on any news organization, they all have agendas and I don’t want to be told what to think. I can make my own opinions with out Don Lemon or Sean Hannity telling me what to think. Enjoy the political football.
    If you can’t laugh at this video then maybe you are taking things too serious.







    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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