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COVID-19


Zed Head

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18 minutes ago, Patcon said:

I am tied of people in this thread taking swipes at the president and touting other politicians as being totally on the ball. I have watched many of the presidential updates and I don't see them the way some others view them. I voted for the man once and I will be again! I suspect the overwhelming silence from others on the forum suggests that others might feel the same way...

I haven't seen any comments about other politicians being "on the ball".  Only about the obvious incompetence and idiocy of the President and the suckups he has surrounded himself with.

I can't believe that you even wrote this post.  Trump was warned about this pandemic very early and did nothing, see the link below.  He gets his thoughts from the internet and Alex Jones and Steve Bannon.  His inaction has led to many more people dying than should have.  His efforts to get people to take hydroxychloroquine  are an attempt to be able to say that he participated in a cure.  If everyone is taking it who can say what made the survivors better?  He is a 100% con-man and he always has been.  

The thread is about COVID-19.  Trump is the main reason that United States of America has the worst COVID-19 epidemic in the world.  We are #1 in sickness and death, and because of that Trump has to screw other countries that would normally get our help.   His incompetence is affecting the whole world.   Voting for Trump is voting for more death.  The virus will still be around next year.  He's not even a Republican, if you're one of those party followers.  He was a Democrat when it worked for him then he switched parties when he saw a new opportunity.  A new group to con.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/donald-trump-coronavirus-memos-warning-peter-navarro

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IHME is back to keeping their page updated.  It's not changing much, which suggests that their model is fairly accurate.  The real data is matching the projected curve.

They've expanded their work in to Europe.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

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I mis-wrote earlier.  Apparently, Spain and Italy are still #1 in deaths.  We're only #1 in death rate.  so, we'll take that #1 spot in total deaths in a few more days probably.

Here's a good site that breaks things down by country.  We're actually doing pretty well in per capita terms.  But we could have done so much better.  Wasteful deaths due to stalling and distracting.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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I think the reports of numbers dying each day with the virus can be misleading. I understand about 7500 people die every day in the US in normal times.
so isn't the more interesting question "how many people more than 7500 died each day?"?

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That's why I mentioned per capita, and corrected my other post.  That's the best measure, I think.

The great irony here is that we've been told and still continue to be told, or sold, how much better America is than anywhere else in the world.  But the numbers don't show it.  America is a facade.  We're been heading away from the dream at a pretty rapid rate in the last few years.  If there was a death per capita chart that included all deaths, due to poor medical care, pollution, crime, border deaths, etc. the USA might be way up there, pre-virus.  The virus is icing on the death cake.  We are very far from the "best".  It's an illusion.

I'll see if I can find a death-tracking site.  I'm sure there's one out there.  Might as well know who we really are, instead of listening to people on the news channels.  They're just selling more stuff.  Whatever keeps people watching.

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Hydroxychloroquine is a big part of this article.  It also seems like a smoke-screen and coverup is being started.  By the time this is over there probably won't be any way to prove, with evidence, what was right and what was wrong.  The experts are about to be purged, and the usual suspects will be coming back.  It will be unbelievable.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/07/fox-news-coronavirus-trump-media-allies-turn-against-fauci

Rudy Guliani and Dr. Oz, over Dr. Fauci.  Try to grasp that.

"Reportedly, Trump’s own, increasingly bullish enthusiasm for the drug is informed by Giuliani. He in turn picked the notion that it was cure-all up from a celebrity doctor, Mehmet Oz, who, like Trump, is a regular guest on Fox & Friends."

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2 minutes ago, Pilgrim said:

Look for "Morbidity and Mortality" reports. Those usually track stuff like this.

And I think it's pretty obvious that the reports are deaths attributable to CO-19, not random deaths.

Thanks.  I've found a few but there's usually focused on a certain cause, like traffic, or suicide.  Actually, world-wide, the US probably has a low death rate because we are, or were, a highly developed country.  The direction that it's heading now though is the wrong way I think.

Anyway, COVID-19 has only been happening in the US for about a month.  There's a long way to go.  All we can really do is watch and hope.

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Lots of the deaths attributed to covid-19 are of people who were going to die soon anyway. So although they died while infected, they didn't increase the number of people dying.
So its the delta between daily death count this year vs any other year that is interesting (to me, at least)

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2 hours ago, Zed Head said:

IHME is back to keeping their page updated.  It's not changing much, which suggests that their model is fairly accurate.  The real data is matching the projected curve.

They've expanded their work in to Europe.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

Actually, I think their work is pretty poor and I don't think Europe will want them.

Here are the problems that I see:

1) Their high projections need to be re-evaluated, they are way off.

2) Their daily death totals on April 2 were 600 people too low, by April 6 their total is over 800 people too high. (Based on John Hopkins numbers and what is being reported)

3) The huge jump in Daily deaths from April 3 to April 4 was to play catch-up and get the totals right.  Unfortunately, they kept that large value which has caused them to far exceed the current death total (by 800)

4) At no time has the US daily death total reached over 1700 and they have that number twice.  I show the highest total as 1486 which was yesterday.  We may reach 1700 in 3 to 5 days.  

That being said, not impressed with the work.  Also, the high and low curves should be much smoother due to the overlap of 50 states. The steep drops show that they have errors/inconsistencies in their model.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Also for what it's worth....from the charts:

New York had it's worst day yesterday, not a good sign.  Hopefully it is just a blip in the numbers.

Michigan had a bad day and hopefully the rate starts slowing.  They are starting to go vertical.

The surprise was Georgia, big jump from the previous days, from an average of around 15 up to 75 yesterday.

Maryland, Ohio and South Carolina are starting to ramp.  Hopefully that does not continue.

Wyoming is still our glimmer of hope with 0 deaths still.

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Good point, for COVID-19 (edit - I was referring to jonbill's post here).  I was thinking more in terms of just accepting more overall death, outside of COVID-19, as the price for having your candidate in office.  But, that's politics.

Here's a good story, linked below, which gets in to how people can believe things that aren't true.  It's about the media and how they can be manipulated also, just like the people watching.  You can't tell who to believe.  It has some history of the man at the top included. 

One thing that's not often mentioned is the fact the man at the top has several criminal indictments waiting for him if he doesn't get re-elected.  He needs that second term so that the statue of limitations will run out.  He is desperate to stay in office.  And that might be the greatest irony of this COVID-19 problem.  If he had jumped on this pandemic early, when he first heard about it, he would really be a hero now.  He would look like a real leader, overlooking distractions and focusing on what really mattered, for the people.  People would be willing to overlook all of his flaws, just due to his handling of COVID-19.  He blew a huge chance to paper over all of his past.  I would guess that some historian will see that as the biggest missed opportunity of his life.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/04/front-row-at-the-trump-show-jonathan-karl-book

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